We have ourselves an SEC showdown in Tuscaloosa, where No. 23 Alabama looks to turn things around after suffering a tough home loss to Tennessee this past Saturday. They face a Missouri Tigers team that just snuck past Oklahoma 88 to 87. Missouri needed an overtime buzzer beating three to secure the win. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers can keep their winning ways alive, or if Alabama responds after a tough defeat.
I lean toward the Crimson Tide covering the points in this one. They are the most battle tested team in the country, ranking number one in strength of schedule per Haslametrics. On top of that, Alabama has a massive home court advantage. They rank 165th in away home court efficiency, while Missouri ranks second worst in that category. This sets up as an exhausting matchup for the Tigers, a team that prefers to play slow, while Alabama loves to run, ranking as the tenth fastest team in the country. The Crimson Tide will look to push the pace on every possession.
Through nine home games this season, Alabama owns the number one offense in the country according to Bart Torvik. The offense excels at attacking the glass, converting free throws, and generating offensive rebounds. They attempt the most three-point shots at home, which can be a concern given their 175th ranking in three-point percentage. However, Tuscaloosa has been where they have been most efficient from deep.
Defensively, Alabama has largely been a no show, especially inside their home gym. They rank 111th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency. That said, there are a few bright spots. Despite struggling to force turnovers, rebound consistently, and keep opponents off the free throw line, the Crimson Tide rank 32nd in defensive block percentage, 92nd in two-point defense, and 94th in three0-point rate defense.
Tortoise vs. Hare
Even with Alabama's defensive flaws, I expect Missouri to struggle keeping up with the pace. Through six true road games this season, the Tigers have shown issues, ranking 323rd in three point percentage defense and 214th in turnover percentage. Offensively, they rank second worst in free throw percentage, so even with Alabama's tendency to foul, Missouri is unlikely to capitalize at the charity stripe. Ball security is another concern, as the Tigers rank 227th in offensive turnover rate.
With Alabama needing a bounce back performance and Missouri coming off a game they likely should have lost, this sets up as a strong spot for the Crimson Tide to get back on track. There is a road game against Florida coming up on Sunday, but with five days between games, all focus should be on tonight.
