#4 Minnesota vs. #1 UCLA Prediction & Picks (Women’s Sweet Sixteen): Can the Gophers Get Close to the Bruins?

As was the case last year, three Big Ten teams made it to the second week of women's March Madness. Last year, two reached the Elite Eight, and that is the maximum that can get there this year as two of the three will meet in today's Minnesota vs. UCLA matchup in Fort Worth.

After reaching the Final Four for the first time in program history last season, UCLA has once again been one of the best teams in the country this season. And with wins over 16-seed Cal Baptist (96-43) and eighth-seeded Oklahoma State (87-68), the Bruins are in the Sweet Sixteen for the eighth time under coach Cori Close.

For Minnesota, this matchup vs. UCLA marks a return to a point the program hasn't seen in more than two decades.

The Golden Gophers' biggest successes came in the early 2000s under Hall of Famer Lindsey Whalen and former WNBA Draft first overall pick Janel McCarville.

But happy times are here again, as Minnesota won the WBIT last season and has now reached the second week for the first time since 2005 in its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2018.

The Golden Gophers have been especially sizzling down the stretch, winning 12 of their last 14 games. And after defeating 13-seed Green Bay (75-58) and fifth-seeded Ole Miss (65-63), Minnesota (24-8) will meet UCLA (33-1) for a spot in the Sacramento 2 regional final against either second-seeded LSU or third-seeded Duke.

Will the Bruins move on with another big win? Or can the Golden Gophers keep it close? At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, UCLA is favored by a wide margin. However, the gap is smaller than for Monday's Round of 32 matchup against Oklahoma State.

Minnesota vs. UCLA TLDR

UCLA should win, but I think Minnesota should push the Bruins even more than Oklahoma State did.

Minnesota vs. UCLA Matchup Information

• Matchup: #4 Minnesota vs. #1 UCLA (2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament Sacramento 2 Sweet Sixteen)
• Location (Venue): Sacramento, California (Golden 1 Center)
• Date: Friday, March 27, 2026
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Minnesota vs. UCLA Odds and Probabilities

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Friday, March 27, 2026, at 2:40 p.m. ET

Tale of the Tape: Minnesota vs. UCLA

Minnesota vs. UCLA Prediction and Analysis

Is a challenge on the horizon for the Bruins?

UCLA was never threatened seriously by Oklahoma State and led by double digits for the final 32 minutes against the Cowgirls.

But Oklahoma State scored more points than all but three UCLA opponents this season, and they kept the game closer than 23 of the Bruins' other 32 beaten foes have.

Minnesota is one of the nine to go down vs. UCLA by fewer than 20 points. On January 14, the Bruins defeated the Golden Gophers 76-58 in Minneapolis, in the lone regular season matchup between the two teams.

Minnesota was 12-5 overall and 3-3 in Big Ten play, then lost to Washington in the following game.

Since that loss, the Golden Gophers have caught fire, winning eight games by double digits along the way. Last Sunday's win over Ole Miss wasn't one such win, as it was decided by Amaya Battle's game-winning basket with under a second left. But it saw them dig deep and deliver on both ends in crunch time, overcoming an eight-point deficit in the fourth and outscoring the Rebels 9-2 in the final 3:44.

Can Minnesota make UCLA work for a second straight trip to the Elite Eight?

Offensively, all five Minnesota starters average double figures. Defensively, the Golden Gophers are second behind the Bruins in the Big Ten in both scoring defense and field goal defense and have allowed 65 or more points just nine times this season.

An upset is unlikely vs. UCLA, but Minnesota should not be written off. The Golden Gophers are a better team than they were when they met the Bruins in January, have one of the best coaches in the country, and should cover even if this one is not close.

Minnesota vs. UCLA Picks

Minnesota Team Total Over 56.5 (-115 at Lucky Rebel)

Minny +18.5 (-110 at Lucky Rebel)

Bart Torvik's projections for today's women's March Madness games have this one down as a 72-59 win, a result that would make a winner out of both of these plays. I'm thinking more around 78-65, which would also do the trick.

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