#2 Michigan vs. #1 Texas Prediction & Picks (Women’s Elite Eight): Top Two Seeds Meet for Fort Worth 3 Title

Two tickets to the women's Final Four have already been booked, and the other two will be claimed tonight. First up on the Monday night March Madness menu is Michigan vs. Texas, the lone regional final to feature a matchup between the top two seeds.

The second-seeded Wolverines (28-6) are in a regional final for just the second time ever, following a loss to Louisville in the Wichita regional final in 2022.

Michigan secured a spot in tonight's Fort Worth 3 final vs. Texas with a resounding 71-52 win over third-seeded Louisville on Saturday. The Cardinals led 38-37 halfway through the third quarter, but the Wolverines then went on an 18-0 run and scored 34 of the game's final 48 points in an impressive flourish.

The top-seeded Longhorns (34-3) won by a similarly sizable margin in the Sweet Sixteen but had a much simpler stroll against SEC rival Kentucky. Texas took a 10-point lead just over four minutes into the game and led by double digits from there in a 76-54 romp.

While the Wolverines are eyeing a Final Four debut, the Longhorns are seeking their second straight and fifth all time.

To earn its first Final Four trip, Michigan must defeat a top-10 opponent for the first time in over four years. The odds of that happening are not promising, however. At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, Texas is favored by nearly a double-digit margin.

Michigan vs. Texas TLDR

Michigan is a tough assignment for Texas, but I expect the Longhorns to pass it. I don't love either side of the spread, but I do like the over, which lines up with Bart Torvik's projections.

Michigan vs. Texas Matchup Information

• Matchup: #2 Michigan vs. #1 Texas (2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament Fort Worth 3 Regional Final)
• Location (Venue): Fort Worth, Texas (Dickies Arena)
• Date: Monday, March 30, 2026
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Michigan vs. Texas Odds

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Monday, March 30, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET.

Tale of the Tape: Michigan vs. Texas

Michigan vs. Texas Prediction and Analysis

The Wolverines have not beaten a top-10 team since a 65-50 win over then-No. 5 Indiana on January 31, 2022.

To end that drought, Michigan must pass arguably its toughest test of the season at both ends of the court.

In its current 11-game win streak, Texas has averaged 82.7 points per game offensively and allowed an average of 57.1 points per game defensively. In that stretch, the Longhorns have allowed no more than 68 points, scored 76 or more points nine times, and won by 17 or more points nine times.

Michigan certainly has its work cut out vs. Texas, but the Wolverines have earned their place in the Elite Eight.

In the NCAA tournament, teams are shooting just 28.9% (13 of 45) from three and 39.5% (66 of 167) against Michigan, who dispatched 15-seed Holy Cross by 35 (83-48), 7-seed NC State by 29 (92-63), and Louisville by 19.

After dominating the Crusaders from start to finish in the opening round, the Wolverines broke things open against the Wolfpack and Cardinals in the second half, outscoring the two teams 103-63 in the final 20 minutes across the two wins.

If there is any additional encouragement for the Wolverines, it is that most of the Longhorns' toughest games this season have come in their toughest games. And in a schedule that has also featured three meetings with South Carolina, two against LSU, and two against Kentucky as well as games against UCLA, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma, Michigan profiles as one of Texas's toughest opponents.

All that said, Michigan's record against top-10 opposition is hard to overlook, especially with as good as this Texas team is. I think the Wolverines can stay within striking distance, but the Longhorns will take the win.

Michigan vs. Texas Picks

Michigan/Texas Over 138 (-114 at Lucky Rebel)

Through Sunday, only three of 10 Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games had gone over 138, but Bart Torvik's projections for today's women's March Madness games have this one down as a 75-66 Texas win and I think we will see enough offense in this one for the over to hit, even if Texas wins comfortably.

Bet on Women's March Madness at Lucky Rebel

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