#8 Michigan State vs. #3 Michigan Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Sat Mar 07, 2026, 6:15 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The top two seeds in the Big Ten go head to head to end the regular season tomorrow in Ann Arbor as the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines host the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans. We already saw this Wolverines team get a win over the Spartans in East Lansing by 12 as 2.5 point favorite, and now they are at home laying double digits. Will Tom Izzo's team be able to pull off this road upset? Or do Dusty May and the Wolverines keep cruising to end the year? Keep reading for our CBB expert picks in this matchup.
Best Bet: Michigan Team Total Over 80.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#8 Michigan State Spartans vs. #3 Michigan Wolverines NCAA Basketball Insights
Tom Izzo hasn't been swept by the Wolverines since 2018
As I said, we saw an 83-71 Wolverines' victory in East Lansing in late January. Michigan covered the spread with ease, and the total ended up going over the 149.5 mark, ending with 154. But the Spartans made a valiant effort in the second half. They were down 16 points at halftime, only scoring 26 in the first 20 minutes of the game. Michigan even led by 18 at one point, but the Spartans never gave up and even recaptured the lead with less than seven minutes to go. However, Michigan is just that good.
They shot 38% from deep compared to just 17% from the Spartans which ended up being the difference in the game, as both were north of 85% from the charity stripe on 26 and 27 free throw attempts each. Will Izzo's offense be enough to get the job done? Clearly both were looking ahead on Thursday, as they squeaked by their foes with Michigan beating Iowa by three, while the Spartans took down Rutgers by four.
Matchup Information – Michigan State vs. Michigan – March 8
- Venue & Location: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, MI)
- Date: Sunday, March 8, 2026
- Kick Off: 4:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Odds
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Spread
- Michigan State +10.5 (-110)
- Michigan -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Michigan State +360
- Michigan -480
Total
- Over 149.5 (-110)
- Under 149.5 (-110)
#8 Michigan State vs. #3 Michigan NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Michigan takes on Michigan State to close our the regular season on Sunday
Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction: Michigan Wins and Covers, Over 149.5
Best Bet: Michigan Team Total Over 80.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
What's the motivation for either team besides beating their rival? For Michigan, there isn't much. It's Senior Night, but they already have the one seed in the Big Ten conference tournament wrapped up, and will likely be a one seed for March Madness assuming they win a couple games next week. As for the Spartans, with their head to head loss to Nebraska, the Cornhuskers could theoretically jump them for the two seed in the conference if they were to beat Iowa in Lincoln on Sunday and have the Spartans lose, as both would finish with 15-5 records in league play.
But I don't think that will matter much. I don't see Michigan State winning this game. Their offense is simply not good enough to keep up against this high flying Michigan offense. Yes, I know their defense is one of the best in the country, but the pace the Wolverines will force in this game is going to be too much to handle. They have big bodies down low to corral the boards, and they've got multiple scoring options offensively, both inside and out. It's a lot to keep track of, not to mention the extra depth the Michigan bench has as well.
Ultimately, on Senior Night, in Ann Arbor, with a chance to sweep your rival for the first time since 2018, I see the Wolverines leaving no doubt on the scoreboard.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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