Memphis vs. Mississippi State: Odds & Predictions | December 20, 2025

A very underrated late Saturday afternoon matchup between the Memphis Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are riding a two game winning streak and looking to keep that alive, while Memphis is aiming to bounce back after back to back losses to top 25 teams. Can the Tigers turn things around in their final test before conference play, or will the Bulldogs record their first top 100 win of the season? We shall see.

More of a Cat Guy

As much as that intro sets this up like Mississippi State has a real chance, the deeper I dig, the more baffled I am that they are favored by 3.5 points. The Bulldogs have not played anyone of note, with Haslametrics grading their schedule as the 74th toughest to start the year. Memphis, meanwhile, has faced the fourth toughest schedule in the country. Mississippi State is 0-5 against top 100 teams. Outside of their loss to Iowa State, losses to Kansas State, New Mexico, SMU and San Francisco are difficult to excuse. On the other side, Memphis has faced San Francisco, Ole Miss, Purdue, Wake Forest, Baylor, Louisville and Vanderbilt. Out of those 7 games, they picked up wins against San Francisco and Baylor.

With the volume of tests and high level competition Memphis has already seen, it is tough for me not to grab the points with the Tigers. Earlier this week against Vanderbilt, they were competitive for the entire game and narrowly missed pulling off the upset, while still covering the number. In four games away from home this season, Memphis owns a top 65 offense. They also excel at creating second chance opportunities, ranking 35th in offensive rebounding.

Defensively, the raw numbers are not eye popping, but context matters. Memphis has already played seven teams inside the top 100, with three of those inside the top 15. Even with that slate, they still rank as a top 38 defense against top 100 competition. They force turnovers at a high rate, block shots and defend the interior well. If they can continue to step up to tougher competition, they should be in a strong position to stay within 3.5, or even win outright.

Overall this season, the Bulldogs have struggled across the board. They rank bottom 100 in turnover defense, free throw rate offense, free throw percentage and offensive block percentage.

It is extremely difficult to find data points that support Mississippi State in this spot. They are coming off a 4 point win over Long Island, a road win at Utah, losses to San Francisco and SMU and a win over Georgia Tech, who lost to DePaul earlier in the year. Mississippi State has been underwhelming all season, which is why I want to be firmly on Memphis in this matchup.