If you have not been paying attention to Marquette basketball this season, let me just say, it is not 2023 anymore. This team has been horrendous, currently 5-4 with losses to Indiana, Maryland at home, Dayton at home, and Oklahoma. They are coming off an overtime win against Valparaiso this past Tuesday as a 17.5-point favorite. They needed overtime for No. 220 Valpo. Now, they head to Madison to take on a very solid Wisconsin team that just took down Northwestern by 12 on Wednesday. I will happily fade Shaka Smart and the Golden Eagles by taking the Badgers at -10.5.
Badgers or Nothing
Haslametrics has Wisconsin dominating this game, giving them a clear advantage in strength of schedule, momentum, consistency, away/home court, and season rank. This is not the end-all, but I lean heavily on strength of schedule, and Marquette is 0-3 against top 100 opponents this season. Two of those three losses I think they should have won, as I do not have much respect for Oklahoma or Dayton. Losing to Indiana by 23 makes sense; they are a very well-rounded team this season.
The Badgers this season boast the 38th-ranked offense and defense while dominating the boards and attacking the glass, ranked top 55 in both. Wisconsin has been excellent from the line, shooting nearly 80 percent from the charity stripe, and moves the ball efficiently without forcing turnovers.
On the other side, the Golden Eagles' offense has been atrocious. Sure, they are ranked 100th in offense, but their perimeter shooting is 251st and their two-point offense is 215th. Their eFG% offense is 231st in the nation. They have been abysmal. This game will be Marquette's first road game of the season. If they have not seen much success inside their home gym, they are not going to have much success against a top 50 defense in a hostile environment at the Kohl Center.
Good luck to Shaka Smart and his boys, but I have to fade them despite the double-digit spread. Smart teams also typically struggle on the road, and against the best team they have faced to this point, I expect the Badgers to feast.
