#3 Louisville vs. #2 Michigan Prediction & Picks (Women’s Sweet Sixteen): Will the Wolverines Outpace the Cardinals?

For a decade and a half, the second week of women's March Madness was a familiar sight for Jeff Walz and Louisville, as the Cardinals reached the Sweet Sixteen a dozen times in 15 tournaments from 2008 to 2023. During that time, the Cardinals also made a habit of advancing further. Now, back in the second week for the first time after a brief absence, a win vs. Michigan separates in the Fort Worth 3 regional semifinals separates Louisville from a ninth all-time Elite Eight berth.

Prior to Walz's hiring 19 years ago, Louisville had never been to the Sweet Sixteen in 11 NCAA tournament appearances. They went in his first season in 2008 and have now been a dozen more times since, including runs to the national championship game in 2009 and 2013 and additional Final Four trips in 2018 and 2022.

But after making it to the Elite Eight in 2023, the Cardinals were eliminated in the first round in 2024 and the second round in 2025.

Now, after wins over 14-seed Vermont (72-52) and sixth-seeded Alabama (69-68), third-seeded Louisville (29-7) will line up vs. Michigan with a regional final against either top seed Texas or 5-seed Kentucky at stake.

The second-seeded Wolverines (27-6) are not as familiar as a program with this stage of the tournament as the Cardinals are.

This is just Michigan's third all-time Sweet Sixteen appearance, following appearances in 2021 and 2022. The 2022 run brought their best tournament result, a regional final loss to the very same program that could deny them an Elite Eight return.

Who will have the upper hand this time around? In a Sweet Sixteen with several sizable spreads, this matchup has the smallest spread of the bunch at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks.

Louisville vs. Michigan TLDR

This should be one of the best games of the Sweet Sixteen, but the Wolverines, who have put together an outstanding season and will book a well-earned Elite Eight berth in a game that should feature some scoring.

Louisville vs. Michigan Matchup Information

• Matchup: #3 Louisville vs. #2 Michigan (2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament Fort Worth 3 Sweet Sixteen)
• Location (Venue): Fort Worth, Texas (Dickies Arena)
• Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
• Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Louisville vs. Michigan Odds and Probabilities

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Friday, March 27, 2026, at 8:40 p.m. ET.

Tale of the Tape: Louisville vs. Michigan

Louisville vs. Michigan Prediction and Analysis

Louisville and Michigan are a notch or two below UConn, UCLA, Texas, South Carolina, and LSU, a quintet that will likely produce this year's national champion.

There's no shame whatsoever in that distinction. Those five top teams just happen to have a clear gap between the rest of the field. That does not diminish the success that both the Cardinals and Wolverines have had this season.

Entering this matchup vs. Michigan, all seven Louisville losses to date have come against fellow Sweet Sixteen teams: UConn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Duke (twice), Virginia, and North Carolina.

Michigan is three for six in that category, but the Wolverines' six losses are all to stiff competition: UConn, Washington (a 6-seed in the tournament), Vanderbilt, UCLA, and Iowa (a 2-seed in the tournament) twice.

The losses to the Huskies (72-69) and Bruins (69-66) were both by three points, and they played the former closer than the Cardinals, who lost by 13 in the teams' season opener.

Michigan has also performed better against ranked teams, posting a 6-5 record compared to Louisville's 4-5 record.

Do these results provide an indication on which side to favor in Fort Worth?

Michigan's eye test, metrics, and overall resume are all superior to Louisville, but the Cardinals are also battle-tested against top competition. However, Louisville lost all three of its games against other teams ranked in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency at Bart Torvik: 79-66 to UConn, 72-62 to Kentucky, and 79-77 to South Carolina and 2-4 against teams ranked in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency at Bart Torvik.

This profiles as a potentially close contest, but I like the Wolverines to take the win and set up a potential Fort Worth 3 final against Texas.

Louisville vs. Michigan Picks

Over 142.5 (-115 at Lucky Rebel)

Michigan Team Total Over 72.5 (-116 at Lucky Rebel)

Though Bart Torvik's projections for tomorrow's games have the Wolverines covering with a 74-69 win, I don't feel overly confident in the spread even though I give Michigan the edge over Louisville.

However, that projection lines up well with my thoughts on both of these plays. Both Louisville and Michigan have posted solid stats defensively, but the forecast points more to enough offense on both sides to take this one over.

Also, to date, the Wolverines have scored fewer than 80 points in a win just twice, in a 70-60 win over Minnesota on January 5 and a 73-67 win over USC on January 25. If they can play their preferred way, as they have more often than not, they will keep that trend going against the Cardinals.

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