#7 Iowa State vs. #2 Arizona Picks and Predictions: Big 12 Semifinals
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Mar 13, 2026, 11:25 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Cyclones and Wildcats meet in the Big 12 Conference Tournament Semifinals tonight in Kansas City, and they'll actually be playing on hardwood tonight! After an (unsuccessful) attempt to be different, the conference decided to do away with the LED glass court after plenty of reports from players regarding slipping on the unnatural surface, as well as plenty of backlash from fans. Good for them for trying something new, but even better for them listening to the negative reviews and making adjustments. How will that impact tonight's conference semifinal? Let's get into our expert picks as Iowa State takes on Arizona.
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Best Bet: Arizona -3.5 (-107) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#7 Iowa State Cyclones vs. #2 Arizona Wildcats NCAA Basketball Insights
Tamin Lipsey and Iowa State have only allowed 95 total points in two Big 12 Tournament games so far
Since the Big 12 Tournament started, all I've heard from Arizona fans is how much it sucks that this tournament is in Kansas City. And I would imagine anyone saying that isn't really interested in watching basketball, or they think they are entitled to make the rules after winning the conference. Regardless, the league isn't changing the location of the tournament, just the surface of the court for the semifinals and beyond.
In their one meeting this season in Tucson, Arizona beat the Cyclones 73-57. They held their visitors to just 29% shooting from the field overall as they covered the 7.5 spread with ease. The total went up two points, but it didn't seem to matter, as we only saw 130 total points, comfortably under the 149.5 closing line. Will we see another defensive matchup today in Kansas City?
Matchup Information – Iowa State vs. Arizona – March 13
- Venue & Location: T-Mobile Center (Kansas City, MO)
- Date: Friday, March 13, 2026
- Kick Off: 7:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Iowa State vs. Arizona Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of March 13, 2026 at 10:48 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Iowa State +3.5 (-113)
- Arizona -3.5 (-107)
Moneyline
- Iowa State +137
- Arizona -168
Total
- Over 143 (-110)
- Under 143 (-110)
#7 Iowa State vs. #2 Arizona NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Big 12 Player of the Year, Jaden Bradley, leads top seeded Arizona against Iowa State tonight
Iowa State vs. Arizona Prediction: Arizona Wins and Covers, Over 143
Best Bet: Arizona -3.5 (-107) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This Arizona team is so freaking good. And don't get me wrong, so are the Cyclones. But they'll need all the Hilton Magic tonight to pull off this win. Sure, the T-Mobile Center is basically Hilton South at this point, especially with the Iowa State faithful packing the arena every single year, but will it be enough to take down the regular season conference champions? I just don't think so.
The Wildcats are going to push the pace, plain and simple. We saw them take their foot off the gas against UCF yesterday, scoring 46 in the first half, before letting the Knights think they had a chance. Now don't get me wrong, the Cyclones have absolutely dominated their opponents in this tournament so far, especially on defense. They've allowed just 95 total points in two games, but the Wildcats are a different animal.
They have the offense to win in a shootout, which is what they'll try to do by pushing the pace. However they (clearly) have the defense to win a slog as well, as they held the Cyclones to just 57 points in Tucson earlier this year. Will things be different on a (somewhat) neutral site? Sure. I think Iowa State will put up more than 60 points, but Arizona is going to make it very difficult on them to win, and I trust them to cover the spread down the stretch with some excess free throws.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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