Iowa vs. #5 Purdue Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Battle at Mackey
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Wed Jan 14, 2026, 10:32 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Ben McCollum and the Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off two straight losses and look to avoid a third in this Big Ten battle tonight. It certainly won't come easy, as they head into hostile Mackey Arena to face the No. 5 team in the country, the Purdue Boilermakers. Matt Painter has the hosts off to a 5-0 start in conference play, while the Hawkeyes are only 2-3, and looking to end their losing streak. Do they have a chance tonight on the road? Let's find out with our favorite picks.
Best Bet: Iowa/Purdue Under 143 (-107) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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Iowa Hawkeyes vs. #5 Purdue Boilermakers NCAA Basketball Insights
Bennett Stirtz runs the Hawkeyes offense, and has been doing so for Ben McCollum his whole college career
Despite being 2-3 in conference play, the Hawkeyes are just 12-4 overall. They have three road losses, to No. 7 Michigan State, to No. 4 Iowa State and to unranked Minnesota. After losing at the Barn two games ago, they lost at home to No. 16 Illinois. I can overlook the three ranked losses, but Iowa, you gotta beat Minnesota. The problem with the Hawkeyes is they are very one-dimensional, which I will explain below.
As for Purdue, they also lost to that Iowa State team, by 23 as four point favorites at home. That's certainly a game you wish you had back, as beating the Boilermakers in Mackey does not happen all that often. Purdue has some dominating wins on their resume, beating No. 8 Alabama in Tuscaloosa, against No. 15 Texas Tech by 30 in the Bahamas, and beating No. 21 Auburn by 28 on a neutral site in Indianapolis. Surely they can handle the Hawkeyes at home.
Matchup Information – Iowa vs. Purdue – January 14
- Venue & Location: Mackey Arena (West Lafayette, IN)
- Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2025
- Kick Off: 6:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: Big Ten Network
Iowa vs. Purdue Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of January 14, 2025 at 9:55 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Iowa +10.5 (-111)
- Purdue -10.5 (-109)
Moneyline
- Iowa +430
- Purdue -625
Total
- Over 143 (-113)
- Under 143 (-107)
If you stop Bennett Stirtz, you stop the Hawkeyes. The recipe is that simple. He averages 10 more minutes than the next man up, is the only guy to score in double digits, and accounts for about 30% of the teams assists per game. Stirtz runs the entire offense, and when you shut him down, the rest of the Hawkeyes follow. Purdue will be able to do that tonight.
Iowa vs. #5 Purdue NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Can Purdue hand the Iowa Hawkeyes their third straight Big Ten loss?
Iowa vs. Purdue Prediction: Purdue Wins, Iowa Covers, Under 143
Best Bet: Iowa/Purdue Under 143 (-107) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I do think the Hawkeyes cover, simply because I see this game staying under. We have two painfully slow teams, that have very sound defenses. The Boilermakers average less than 66 possessions per game and they severely limit their opponent's offensive rebounds and free throw attempts. Purdue ranks top five in terms of free throw rate defense, but they are bottom 20 in that category offensively. Even at home, they don't take very many free throws.
Iowa is painfully slow, ranking No. 331 in pace, but drop all the way to No. 351 away from home. They average just 64.5 possessions per game in six away/neutral contests, ranking No. 284 in free throw rate offense as well. So we probably won't see too many free throws from either side. Defensively, the Hawkeyes crash the glass and force turnovers, but it will be tough to get steals against Braden Smith and company.
Ultimately, we are going to have a great game. We should have two teams, methodically running their offense as if they have all the time in the world to do so. They'll run their sets, get a decent look, but with both defenses showing out as well, points will be at a premium in this game. Feed me this under, as Purdue earns a tough home win.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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