#9 Iowa vs. #3 Illinois Picks and Predictions: Elite Eight
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri Mar 27, 2026, 3:15 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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It's an all Big Ten regional final in Houston as the No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes and No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini battled their way through the gauntlet and meet in this Elite Eight matchup. These teams only saw each other once during the regular season, where the Illini were victorious, but now they go head to head with a chance at the Final Four on the line. Who will come out on top? Let's find out how our CBB experts are wagering on this matchup by looking at their favorite picks.
Check out our March Madness Betting Guide to get in on all the action this month!
Best Bet: Iowa Team Total Under 65.5 (-104) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
#9 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. #3 Illinois Fighting Illini NCAA Basketball Insights
How far can Ben McCollum lead the Hawkeyes in his first year as head coach?
Let's start by looking at the one meeting this season. Way back on January 11, the Hawkeyes hosted the Illini in Iowa City. Illinois was a short road favorite, giving 1.5 points, with a total that got bought down from 144.5 to 142.5 where it closed. We saw the visitors comfortably cover the spread, winning by six, with 144 total points scored in the 75-69 Illini victory.
Now, with the stakes at their highest, we see Illinois laying 7.5 points against the Hawkeyes, with a total even lower than in the previous meeting, despite it going slightly over the closing number. Neither team plays super fast, and Iowa actually is one of the slowest teams in the entire country. Will limiting the Illini's possessions be enough to win this game? Or can Illinois shoot it well and combat Iowa's sturdy defense?
Matchup Information – Iowa vs. Illinois – March 28
- Venue & Location: Toyota Center (Houston, TX)
- Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
- Tip Off: 6:09 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: TBS/truTV
Iowa vs. Illinois Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of March 27, 2026 at 2:27 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Iowa +7.5 (-115)
- Illinois -7.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Iowa +255
- Illinois -325
Total
- Over 137.5 (-112)
- Under 137.5 (-108)
#9 Iowa vs. #3 Illinois NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Kylan Boswell is one of the best on ball defenders in the country
Iowa vs. Illinois Prediction: Illinois Wins and Covers, Under 137.5
Best Bet: Iowa Team Total Under 65.5 (-104) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I picture a low scoring game, which is why I am hesitant to take Illinois on the spread. Do I think they win this game? Absolutely. The Cinderella Hawkeyes must stop dancing at some point. However, with this likely being a low scoring game, I definitely trust the Illini defense to make it tough on the Hawkeyes to score.
Illinois held Iowa to just 24 first half points in their earlier meeting, plus they held VCU and Houston to just 55 points each in a full 40 minute game. Given the fact that Iowa will do everything they can to slow this down, keeping them under 65.5 should be no problem. They held the Rams and Cougars to 35% shooting from the field, and only allowed the Hawkeyes to shoot 41% at home earlier. I know that game was over two months ago, but the Illini have gelled more as a team, and I don't believe Iowa has the shooting capabilities if Brad Underwood switches to a 2-3 zone. A very tall and long 2-3 zone at that.
Illinois is a matchup nightmare to anyone they face. They are big down low, and their front court is elite at passing out of a trap. They have great shooters and long guards, who can handle shutting down the Hawkeyes' back court. Earlier this year, they held Bennett Stirtz to just 12 points on 5/17 from the field. Give me the Illini to take their time, force plenty of missed shots, and ultimately win this game without having to score 70 points.
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Check Out the Other March Madness Content from Betting News
For college basketball bettors, March Madness is the most wonderful time of the year. And at Betting News, we have you covered for this festively fun season with expert picks throughout the tournament from Nate Hornung and Eddie Griffin, consensus picks for every March Madness game from the First Four to the Final Four, a rundown of the best March Madness betting sites, and more.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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