#11 Illinois vs. #4 Purdue Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Battle at Mackey

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Fri Jan 23, 2026, 2:27 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Braden Smith and the Boilermakers should take down the Huskers tonight in Chicago - NCAA Basketball Picks

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We have two of the top teams in the Big Ten meeting on Saturday at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette as the No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers host the No. 11 Illinois Fighting Illini. The teams have a combined record of 33-5 this year, with both posting 7-1 records in the Big Ten so far. However, Brad Underwood's team have won eight straight while Matt Painter's team just lost their first conference contest in the City of Angels this week. Will they bounce back at home against the shorthanded Illini? Let's find out with our favorite picks.

Best Bet: Purdue -3.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

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#11 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. #4 Purdue Boilermakers NCAA Basketball Insights

Stojakovic puts up 14.4 points and 4.6 boards for the Illini each game - Illinois Purdue Picks

Stojakovic puts up 14.4 points and 4.6 boards for the Illini each game

Illinois has just three losses all year. They lost to Alabama by four, to UConn by 13 and to Nebraska at home by three. All of those teams are very good, and I can look the other way and still believe in this Illni team. Since losing to the Huskers in their own gym, Illinois has won eight straight and covered six spreads. They beat Penn State by eight as 14.5 point favorites on the road, and beat Minnesota by 10 as 15 point favorites at home. However, can they take down the second best team in the conference?

Purdue suffered their first loss of the season on the road this past week. Now they find themselves in a bounce back spot at home, but it won't come easy. The Illini are very good, especially defensively. Lucky for the Boilermakers, Illinois is missing a key piece on both sides of the ball, which severely hurts their chances of pulling this off in my eyes.

Matchup Information – Illinois vs. Purdue – January 24

  • Venue & Location: Mackey Arena (West Lafayette, IN)
  • Date: Saturday, January 24, 2025
  • Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: FOX

Illinois vs. Purdue Betting Odds

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Spread

  • Illinois +3.5 (-110)
  • Purdue -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Illinois +130
  • Purdue -160

Total

  • Over 150.5 (-112)
  • Under 150.5 (-108)

Kylan Boswell is injured. He runs the show on offense and is the defensive motor on the other side of the floor. Missing his senior leadership hurts this team, especially considering that's the one guy who could give Braden Smith a tough time. Without him on the floor, my faith in the Illini severely shrinks, and I'll be backing the hosts.

#11 Illinois vs. #4 Purdue NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions

Trey Kaufman-Renn averages 12.5 points and 8.9 rebounds per game - Illinois Purdue Picks

Trey Kaufman-Renn averages 12.5 points and 8.9 rebounds per game

Illinois vs. Purdue Prediction: Purdue Wins and Covers, Over 150.5

Best Bet: Purdue -3.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

This opened at -2.5 towards Purdue and quickly went up a point. I'll tap in now before it gets even worse. Everyone and their mother will be backing the Boilermakers, and for good reason.

They just got beat by the UCLA Bruins on the road. That loss snapped a nine game winning streak since being blown out by the Iowa State Cyclones at home. I think they get right tomorrow against an Illini team that is missing a key part of their rotation. Boswell plays 31 minutes per game, averaging 14.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists. He was also a finalist for Big Ten defensive player of the year last year, and wanted to win that award this season.

He very well may do it, but I think the Purdue offense is going to excel with him on the sideline. Ultimately, Purdue already lost at Mackey Arena this season. While it certainly could happen again, they should do everything in their power to take advantage of the shorthanded Illini coming to town.

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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