#5 Illinois vs. #10 Michigan State Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Battle
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Feb 06, 2026, 7:34 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Big Ten is an absolute gauntlet this year, but that's not stopping Brad Underwood's squad from taking down anyone in their path. The Fighting Illini of Illinois are into the top five of the national poll and for good reason. This team is rock solid. However they will have their work cut out for them this weekend as they head to East Lansing to take on the No. 10 Michigan State Spartans in what could be the ultimate "buy low" spot for Tom Izzo's team. Do the Spartans bounce back and figure out how to win at home? Or do the European All Stars of Champaign, led by freshman Keaton Wagler of Shawnee, KS keep their winning streak alive? Let's get into our favorite picks and break down this matchup.
Best Bet: Illinois ML (-105) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#5 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. #10 Michigan State Spartans NCAA Basketball Insights
Tom Izzo hasn't lost three games in a row since February of 2024
The Illini are alone with the Michigan Wolverines on top of the conference. They sit at 11-1 in Big Ten play, 20-3 overall, and have won 12 straight games heading into this one. During that streak, they have three ranked wins, all on the road, two of which were against top five squads, as they upset the Purdue Boilermakers and Nebraska Cornhuskers in back to back games on the road. Now they head to East Lansing to face a Spartans team that is trying to pick themselves up.
Michigan State has lost two in a row, to their rival, Michigan, and to Minnesota at the Barn. Now they have to turn around and host arguable the hottest team in the entire country. Even without Kylan Boswell, the Illini are finding ways to get the job done, and to be quite honest, I think they absolutely roll against the Spartans. It's not Tom's month yet, people, and this Illini team looks like one that is capable of winning a stacked Big Ten. And they could possibly end the season in Indianapolis.
Matchup Information – Illinois vs. Michigan State – February 7
- Venue & Location: Breslin Center (East Lansing, MI)
- Date: Saturday, February 7, 2026
- Kick Off: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX
Illinois vs. Michigan State Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of February 6, 2026 at 9:58 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Illinois +1.5 (-115)
- Michigan State -1.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Illinois -105
- Michigan State -115
Total
- Over 143.5 (-110)
- Under 143.5 (-110)
#5 Illinois vs. #10 Michigan State NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Keaton Wagler has stepped up for the Illini this season, boosting his draft stock
Illinois vs. Michigan State Prediction: Illinois Wins Outright, Over 143.5
Best Bet: Illinois ML (-105) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This is ultimate spot for the Spartans. I can already hear all the sell jobs tomorrow… "They can't lose three in a row"… "Izzo isn't losing two straight at home"… "Illinois is due for a loss"… While all those statements might be true, they ultimately have no impact on the actual game, and you think the books don't understand how the average bettor thinks? They have all the information you do, and more. It's tough to "out smart" the sportsbooks.
Illinois is the truth. They've proven they can get it done without Kylan Boswell on the floor, and they are incredibly deep. The Illini have plenty more scoring options than the Spartans do, and defensively I also think they are slightly better. Taking Boswell out of the equation, Illinois has three guys averaging at least 12 points per game, and their seven foot twins put up a combined 17 points and 10 rebounds in their minimal time on the court. Ben Humrichous does the dirty work for the team, and Jake Davis has stepped up as a go-to scorer by shooting 41% from downtown.
The Spartans cannot shoot from deep, they struggle to take care of the ball, and they don't force turnovers of their own. The Illini will be able to do whatever they please on offense, they lead the nation in free throw rate defense, and they don't waste opportunities to score. Illinois is top 70 in 3P%, top 25 in 2P% and No. 8 in FT%, shooting 79% from the stripe as a squad. Brad Underwood and his team roll in East Lansing.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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