#3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State Picks and Predictions: Big Monday
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Feb 16, 2026, 10:16 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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You can never take a night off in the Big 12. The No. 5 Iowa State Cyclones just got done taking down a top 10 team in the Kansas Jayhawks, and their reward? They get to turn around and face a top three team in just two days. It's Big Monday here and the best conference in college hoops is giving us a top five matchup as the Cyclones host the No. 3 Houston Cougars. Will Kelvin Sampson and company pull off this upset win? Let's get into our favorite CBB picks and find out.
Best Bet: Houston/Iowa State 1H Under 64 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
#3 Houston Cougars vs. #5 Iowa State Cyclones NCAA Basketball Insights
The Shot#Cyclones | #C5C | @MilanMomcilovi5 pic.twitter.com/VSkozE5lcp
— Iowa State Men's Basketball (@CycloneMBB) February 15, 2026
After losing to TCU on Tuesday night, the Cyclones were in a perfect "bounce back" and "revenge spot at home" against the Kansas Jayhawks. And they dominated from start to finish. But things don't get any easier, and now they are just a two point favorite over the Houston Cougars at home. Can TJ Otzelberger's team quickly get prepared for their toughest opponent of the season? Yes, I know they knocked down the top ranked Boilermakers in Mackey Arena, but as we are now aware, Purdue is not a top five team in the country.
Houston is. The Cougars have made light work of all their opponents since their loss in Lubbock by four. They have won six in a row, with the closest margin of victory being a nine point win over the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth. Their two losses have been by a combined seven points, so I expect them to be able to keep this one close. But let's check out the betting odds and see what we're working with.
Matchup Information – Houston vs. Iowa State – February 16
- Venue & Location: Hilton Coliseum (Ames, IA)
- Date: Monday, February 16, 2026
- Kick Off: 9:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Houston vs. Iowa State Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of February 16, 2026 at 9:47 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Houston +2 (-108)
- Iowa State -2 (-112)
Moneyline
- Houston +112
- Iowa State -136
Total
- Over 135.5 (-109)
- Under 135.5 (-111)
While the Cougars have won six straight, they failed to cover the spread in their last two games. However, this is their first time being a true underdog this year (they were a pick 'em at BYU a week ago).
#3 Houston vs. #5 Iowa State NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Tamin Lipsey and Iowa State take on the No. 3 ranked Houston Cougars tonight
Houston vs. Iowa State Prediction: Iowa State Wins and Covers, Under 135.5
Best Bet: Houston/Iowa State 1H Under 64 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I'll get in and out with this one. Hopefully, we cash our bet in the first 20 minutes of the game and then can relax and watch the second half stress free. When thinking about Houston and Iowa State, my mind goes directly to defense. We have two of the best teams in the nation (not just the Big 12) at stopping their opponents from scoring, and Houston also likes to slow things down.
I am betting on Iowa State locking them up early, but also not starting off as hot as they did against Kansas. Yes, the Cougars have to host the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday who are coming off two losses earlier this week, but that game isn't until Saturday, so they shouldn't be looking too far ahead. Plus, you can't afford to not be fully focused when heading to Hilton Coliseum.
Houston is second in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency and opponent eFG%, while being the third slowest team in the Big 12. Iowa State is top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency, top 50 in opponent eFG%, and are top 20 at keeping teams off the free throw line, but they shoot just 67% from the stripe offensively.
Look for both teams to get out to a slow start shooting the ball while adjusting to each other's tenacious defense.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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