#5 Houston vs. #2 Arizona Picks and Predictions: Big 12 Championship
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sat Mar 14, 2026, 2:09 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The top two teams in the Big 12 have made their way through the conference tournament and meet in the Championship Game on Saturday evening in Kansas City. The Houston Cougars already lost at home to the Arizona Wildcats earlier this season, but Kelvin Sampson's team is looking for revenge tonight. Believe it or not, these teams actually met in the Big 12 Title Game last season as well, as the Cougars won 72-64. Will Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats win their first conference championship as a new member tonight? Let's find out with our expert picks.
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Best Bet: Arizona ML (-120) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#5 Houston Cougars #2 Arizona Wildcats NCAA Basketball Insights
Kingston Flemings puts up 16.6 points and 5.2 assists per game, leading the Cougars in both categories
Since joining the Big 12, Houston has actually made the Big 12 Championship game in all three seasons. In the first year, they lost to Iowa State, but last year successfully captured their first tournament championship. Now in a rematch against Arizona, will they be able to make it two in a row? Not if the Wildcats can help it.
They already beat this Houston team on the road during the regular season. Everyone thought the Cougars would win at home, as the lined steamed from Houston laying 3.5 to laying 6.5 by the time it tipped off, but it didn't matter. Arizona dominated from start to finish and beat the Cougars by seven. The total barely stayed under, as we saw 139 total points scored, which closed around 142.5 after opening at 139.5. Although I got the best number, I still got hooked, but CLV is real, folks.
Matchup Information – Houston vs. Arizona – March 14
- Venue & Location: T-Mobile Center (Kansas City, MO)
- Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026
- Kick Off: 6:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Houston vs. Arizona Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of March 14, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Houston +1.5 (-111)
- Arizona -1.5 (-109)
Moneyline
- Houston -101
- Arizona -120
Total
- Over 138.5 (-110)
- Under 138.5 (-110)
#5 Houston vs. #2 Arizona NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Koa Peat and Arizona beat Houston earlier on the road. Can they do it again tonight in the Big 12 Championship?
Houston vs. Arizona Prediction: Arizona Wins and Covers, Over 138.5
Best Bet: Arizona ML (-120) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This line opened with the Wildcats laying 3.5 points and has ticked down a couple. Clearly, after escaping Iowa State on a buzzer beater from the Big 12 Player of the Year, people are buying into the Cougars, who made light work of the Kansas Jayhawks. But I'll still back Arizona. They are simply that much better, especially on offense.
The Wildcats love to run and get to the rim, something Houston fails to do. The Cougars are bottom 15 in the country in FT Rate offense, and rank north of 275 (bottom 90) in FT Rate defense. In the first meeting, Houston shot just 22 free throws, compared to Arizona's 31, even at home. I would imagine the margin will be even larger in this rematch. That's the style of play Arizona loves, and I expect them to push the pace and dare Houston's offense to keep up, which I don't think they'll be able to do.
Sure, Houston is a top five defense in the country, but so is Arizona. They rank No. 4 overall in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 3 in opponent eFG%, not to mention they are top 30 in FT Rate on both sides of the ball and defensive rebounding. Plus, they rank top 10 in offensive boards as well. They are more balanced, and quite simply better on both ends of the floor, and I don't see Houston getting their revenge.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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