#12 High Point vs. #5 Wisconsin Prediction & Best Bets: Can the Panthers Claw Past the Badgers?

When High Point made its March Madness debut last year, the Panthers more than held their own in a respectable loss to Purdue. Led by a new coach and new stars, High Point will enter this year's first round matchup vs. Wisconsin  (1:50 p.m. ET, TBS) hoping to go a few steps further this time around.

Last year, the 13^th-seeded Panthers entered the NCAA tournament with 14 straight wins and 29 overall, and some thought they could spring an upset against the fourth-seeded Boilermakers. They ultimately fell 75-63, but they certainly put a scare into Purdue, who led by only three with under eight minutes left.

After losing head coach Alan Huss, who departed to be an assistant/head coach-in-waiting at Creighton, and seven of their top eight scorers, High Point had some retooling to do under promoted assistant Flynn Clayman.

The program did just that, and after rolling to a second straight Big South regular season and tournament sweep, the Panthers (30-4) once again enter March Madness on a 14-game win streak.

Now, as the No. 12 seed in the West Region, High Point will look to pull a stunner in Portland vs. fifth-seeded Wisconsin (24-10), who finished fifth in the Big Ten regular season standings and lost to Michigan in the tournament semifinals.

Every year, 12 vs. 5 matchups are a popular upset target for March Madness bettors and bracket contest entrants. But there may be some extra consternation and concern around this matchup for Wisconsin fans, as the Badgers have lost the last three times that they were on this seed line.

Will we see history repeat itself at the Moda Center? If it does, it would qualify as a major upset, as Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks have Wisconsin as a double-digit favorite.

High Point vs. Wisconsin Odds

Odds are from Lucky Rebel.

High Point vs. Wisconsin Prediction and Analysis

Entering the 2026 NCAA tournament, there have been 57 12 vs. 5 upsets in 160 such matchups since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

In the 35.6% of instances in which an upset has occurred, Wisconsin has been involved four times. In the first, the Badgers knocked out Florida State in overtime in 2009.

The last three times, however, they have been on the receiving end, all by double digits.

• 2013: Lost to Ole Miss 57-46
• 2019: Lost to Oregon 72-54
• 2024: Lost to James Madison 72-61

All three of those teams were undone in part by a lack of offensive output.

If High Point adds itself to that list with a win vs. Wisconsin, it will likely not occur for the same reason.

Wisconsin's brand of basketball under Dick Bennett, Bo Ryan, and the first several seasons of Greg Gard's tenure was centered around strong defensive play and slowing the game down. And it's largely worked, which is why the Badgers have missed the NCAA tournament just three times in the last three decades.

But it's also partly why they haven't advanced out of the first weekend since 2017, and though an evolution that started a couple of seasons ago didn't bring immediate changes, this year's team seems to have the potential to chart a different course.

Led by Nick Boyd (20.6 PPG), John Blackwell (19.0 PPG), and Nolan Winter (13.3 PPG), Wisconsin enters the NCAA tournament averaging 83.0 PPG. That is the third highest average in program history, and this is just the third time that the Badgers have averaged 80+ PPG in consecutive seasons.

Top Players for Wisconsin

• Nick Boyd: 20.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.8 RPG
• John Blackwell: 19.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG
• Nolan Winter: 13.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG
• Austin Rapp: 9.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG

Outside shooting has been a big part of this outside explosion, as Wisconsin leads the Big Ten in threes made (11.8, fourth nationally) and attempted (32.1, seventh nationally) and is third in the conference (and 59^th nationally) in percentage (36.1%).

This evolution isn't without its issues though. Wisconsin ranks 15^th in the Big Ten in points allowed per game (75.9 PPG), 14^th in field goal defense (44.7%), and has allowed 80+ points 13 times this season, including 11 times in Big Ten regular season and tournament play.

That is where High Point's hopes vs. Wisconsin receive a big boost.

This season, only about three dozen teams have scored at a higher clip than the Badgers. And of that bunch, only three, all of which are NCAA tournament teams, average 90+ PPG.

One is Alabama, who leads the nation at 91.7 PPG. The second is Miami (OH), who actually scored a hair below its average (90.6 PPG) in last night's First Four upset of SMU.

Third is High Point, who enters the tournament averaging 90.0 PPG. The Panthers have done so with a deep rotation, as nine players are averaging at least 5.4 PPG and 12.6 minutes per game, led by Terry Anderson's 16.0 PPG.

Top Players for High Point

• Terry Anderson: 16.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG
• Rob Martin: 15.3 PPG, 3.7 APG
• Cam'Ron Fletcher: 12.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG
• Owen Aquino: 9.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.4 APG

High Point has not played a power conference team this season, so this will be the Panthers' toughest challenge of the year by far.

But with a deep unit that can fill it up, they have every chance to pull the upset, especially if their shots are falling from outside. Anderson (29.5%) and Martin (29.7%) don't shoot well from the perimeter, but the Panthers are shooting 35.6% from three as a team, and everyone in their rotation can bury a three or two at any given time. For a team that doesn't excel defensively (33.3% vs. the three, ninth in the Big Ten), that could lead to some trouble.

Ultimately, Wisconsin should buck its trend of tumbling out of the tournament in this spot, especially with Winter back in the lineup after missing the Big Ten semifinal loss to Michigan. But look for High Point to at least make things interesting once again, and if the Panthers can indeed pull the upset, it will not be a surprise.

High Point vs. Wisconsin Best Bets

High Point/Wisconsin Over 162.5 (-112 at Lucky Rebel)

Bart Torvik's projections for today have this one down as an 89-77 Wisconsin win, and while I think it will be a shade closer than that, I fully expect there to be plenty of points in Portland.

Bet on March Madness at Lucky Rebel and BetOnline

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Check Out the Other March Madness Content from Betting News

For college basketball bettors, March Madness is the most wonderful time of the year. And at Betting News, we have you covered for this festively fun season with expert picks throughout the tournament from Nate Hornung and Eddie Griffin, consensus picks for every March Madness game from the First Four to the Final Four, a rundown of the best March Madness betting sites, and more.

Also, through our streams and social media channels, you can get even more insight from Nate and other members of the Betting News team, as well as offer your own thoughts and tips for the tournament.

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