#12 High Point vs. #4 Arkansas Prediction & Picks (West Region Round of 32): Can the Panthers Run with the Hogs in Portland?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Wed Mar 25, 2026, 4:34 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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After having their backs against the wall multiple times, the Panthers of High Point could have folded against Wisconsin. But after digging deep to dispatch the Badgers, High Point will have to unlock an extra layer to manufacture another massive March Madness upset vs. Arkansas.
Upsets in 12 vs. 5 matchups are one of the consistent themes of the NCAA tournament every year. However, High Point's 83-82 win over Wisconsin was the lone such result this year. In the other 12 vs. 5 matchups, Akron (vs. Texas Tech), McNeese (vs. Vanderbilt), and Northern Iowa (vs. St. John's) all fell by double digits.
High Point also looked bound for the door, as they trailed by eight with five minutes left and by four heading into the final minute.
But the smell of team spirit was clearly in the air, and defense and two clutch baskets by Chase Johnston handed High Point a 15th straight win and a trip to the second round.
Next up is fourth-seeded Arkansas, who never trailed and led by double digits for most of its 97-78 win over 13-seed Hawaii. It was the simplest of strolls for the Razorbacks, who enter tonight's matchup on a season-high six-game win streak.
Who will move on to meet either top seed Arizona or 9-seed Utah State in the West Regional semifinals in San Jose? Arkansas is a heavy favorite at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, but in a matchup of two of the highest-scoring teams in college basketball, anything can happen.
High Point vs. Arkansas TLDR
The Razorbacks should win and book a ticket to the Sweet Sixteen, but it won't come easy. Look for Rob Martin and the Panthers to hold their own and help this one go over a high total.
High Point vs. Arkansas Matchup Information
- Matchup: #12 High Point vs. #5 Arkansas (2026 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament West Regional Second Round)
- Location (Venue): Portland, Oregon (Moda Center)
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV/TBS
High Point vs. Arkansas Odds
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Implied Win % | True Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point | +12.0 (-110) | +525 | Over 170.5 (-112) | 16.0% | 17% |
| Arkansas | -12.0 (-110) | -850 | Under 170.5 (-108) | 89.5% | 83% |
Tale of the Tape: High Point vs. Arkansas
| Category | High Point (31-4) | Arkansas (27-8) |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 89.8 | 90.1 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 70.6 | 80.0 |
| Field Goal % | 48.9% | 50.1% |
| Field Goal Defense | 42.8% | 45.3% |
| 3-Point % | 35.6% | 38.3% |
| 3-Point Defense | 31.9% | 31.7% |
| Free Throw % | 74.2% | 75.0% |
| Adj. Offensive Efficiency (KenPom) | 64th | 4th |
| Adj. Defensive Efficiency (KenPom) | 143rd | 50th |
| Tempo | 44th | 20th |
High Point vs. Arkansas Prediction and Analysis
That Arkansas scored 97 points against Hawaii was not a surprise, given that the Razorbacks had hit the 90-point mark 15 times in their first 34 games this season.
At the same time, it presents a scary proposition for the kind of damage the Hogs can do in the tournament.
While it only counts for so much when considering Hawaii's competition, few low to mid-majors were on par with the Rainbow Warriors defensively. Considering how the upper echelon KenPom and Bart Torvik's offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency rankings are largely populated by teams from a select handful of highly-rated conferences, it is no small feat that Hawaii ranks in the top 50 in defensive efficiency.
And while the Razorbacks did nearly hit the century mark, they did so while making just 4 of 21 (19.0%) from three, well below their season standard of being one of the nation's top three-point shooting teams.
High Point may not be on the same level as Hawaii defensively, but the Panthers are much more equipped offensively to keep up vs. Arkansas.
They didn't reach their season average against Wisconsin, but they did an outstanding job of doing a lot of things right. Namely, while Nick Boyd and John Blackwell combined for 49 points, the other Badgers combined for only 33. And while three-point shooting is not the bread and butter of High Point's offensive attack, the Panthers exploited one of Wisconsin's weaker points, taking 40 threes and making 15 (37.5%).
That highlights how well-coached and well-prepared a team High Point is, and Arkansas can't take this matchup lightly whatsoever. I don't see the Razorbacks doing that, but I do think the Panthers will push them in what should be one of the most entertaining games of the tournament thus far.
High Point vs. Arkansas Picks
Rob Martin Over 1.5 Made Threes (-120) and Over 17.5 Points (-134) (Lucky Rebel)
Martin was integral to High Point's win over Wisconsin, scoring 23 points (9 of 23 FG, 4 of 10 3PT, 1-2 FT) and dishing out 10 assists. It was his 11th 20-point game of the season, and it was his third straight game with at least 18 points and five assists.
Look for him to be similarly central in High Point's endeavors vs. Arkansas. He may not take another 10 threes against the Razorbacks, but his three-point prop is not properly priced.
Yes, for the season he is just 4.4 three-point attempts per game, and he is making just 30.4% of them. But he shot 39.2% and 40.4% each of the last two seasons (with Southeast Missouri State), and what he did against Wisconsin is a more accurate reflection of his abilities.
Also, Martin's volume has had an uptick down the stretch. In his first 25 games this season, he had five or more attempts in a game just eight times. But he has had five or more in seven of his last nine games (and no fewer than four), and when he has had five or more attempts this season, he has connected on two or more 10 of 15 times.
High Point/Arkansas Over 170.5 (-112 at Lucky Rebel)
Taking the over on totals of 170 or higher in college basketball is a risk, even when two prolific teams are involved.
But there is no other reasonable move to make here, and it doesn't hurt that Bart Torvik's projections for today forecast a total of 173 (a 93-80 Arkansas win).
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