Duke vs Purdue Basketball Prediction & Picks: Blue Devils, Boilermakers battle for Phil Knight Legacy title

Eddie Griffin

After impressive semifinal wins on Friday, #8 Duke and #24 Purdue will face off this afternoon for the Phil Knight Legacy title at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon.

After needing a big game from Kyle Filipowski and a strong defensive performance to rally past Oregon State on Thursday, the Blue Devils rode another excellent defensive performance to a 71-64 win over Xavier.

Purdue’s matchup with Gonzaga started shortly before midnight ET on Friday night, but if you were up for it, you would have seen them overwhelm the Bulldogs in an 84-66 win.

That sets up the eighth all-time meeting between Duke and Purdue and the first since the Sweet Sixteen of the 2010 NCAA Tournament, which the Blue Devils won 70-57 on the way to winning the national championship.

Who will come out on top in this matchup? Keep reading for our Duke vs Purdue prediction, as well as our Blue Devils vs Boilermakers picks.

Duke Blue Devils vs Purdue Boilermakers Matchup Information and Betting Odds – 2022 Phil Knight Legacy Championship

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: #8 Duke Blue Devils (6-1) vs #24 Purdue Boilermakers (5-0)
  • Venue & Location: Moda Center (Portland, Oregon)
  • Date: Sunday, November 27, 2022
  • Game Time: 3:30 pm ET (12:30 pm local time)
  • How to Watch Duke vs Purdue: ABC

Duke vs Purdue Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel as of Sunday, November 27, 2022, at 6:15 am ET. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

  • Duke -1.5 (-122)
  • Purdue +1.5 (+100)

Over/Under

  • Over 135.5 (-110)
  • Under 135.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Duke -128
  • Purdue +106

Will Defense Deliver Again for Duke?

After an offensive showing against Oregon State that can be described as offensive, to put it mildly, Duke was much better on that end of the court against Xavier.

  • vs Oregon State: 16 of 60 FG (26.7%), 5 of 29 3PT (17.2%), 17-21 FT (81.0%)
  • vs Xavier: 27 of 54 FG (50.0%), 5 of 11 3PT (45.5%), 12 of 19 FT (63.2%)

The only thing that the Blue Devils didn’t do as well against the Musketeers was shoot free throws, which was because Dereck Lively II missed all four of his attempts from the stripe.

After going just 3 of 14 from the field, including 1 of 7 from three, against the Beavers, Jeremy Roach needed to produce against Xavier. And produce he did, making 9 of 15 shots (2 of 4 from three) and recording 21 points, four rebounds, and five assists.

So did freshman forward Mark Mitchell, who bounced back from going 0 for 4 from the field and tallying one point and no rebounds in 11 minutes against Oregon State to put up 16 points (6-11 FG) and five rebounds in 31 minutes against Xavier.

Roach and Mitchell will need to do more of the same against the Boilermakers, and the Blue Devils will need to get after it on the defensive end again as well.

Duke’s Defensive Numbers in the Phil Knight Legacy (Two Games)

  • vs Oregon State: 17 of 43 FG (39.5%), 6 of 21 3PT (28.6%)
  • vs Xavier: 20 of 52 FG (38.5%), 7 of 17 3PT (41.2%)

Entering the game against Duke, Xavier was averaging 85.8 points per game and had scored no fewer than 78 points in a game. Also, they were shooting 45.7 percent from three and 53.1 percent overall from the field.

Taking Xavier’s big men out of the game was the biggest key to Duke’s success on Friday.

Zach Freemantle went in averaging 15.2 PPG and 8.0 RPG, but he was only 2 of 6 from the field and managed just four points and five rebounds.

Seven-footer Jack Nunge was averaging 16.8 PPG and 7.2 RPG, but he was 1 of 13 from the field and had only five points and five rebounds.

Can the Blue Devils similarly limit Purdue star Zach Edey?

Edey (21.8 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 2.8 BPG) has been an absolute beast thus far and is showing that he can handle increased minutes.

After never playing more than 27 minutes in a game in his first two seasons at Purdue, Edey has played 30+ minutes three times already this season.

Against Gonzaga, Edey fell short of making it five double-doubles in five games to start the season but had his fourth straight 20+ point game, recording 23 points, seven boards, and three blocks.

Duke vs Purdue Prediction and Picks

Duke vs Purdue Prediction: Duke to win

Duke vs Purdue Picks: Duke ML (Best Value: -128 at FanDuel) & Duke/Purdue over (Best Value: over 134.5 @ -110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

There aren’t a lot of college basketball teams with the size to not be intimidated by Edey–Arizona is one that springs to mind, with three seven-footers and 6’11” Azuolas Tubelis–but Duke can counter with Lively (7’1”), Filipowski (7’0”), and 6’10” Ryan Young.

Of course, size isn’t the only thing that matters, and just because they have size doesn’t mean that they can slow down Edey.

But he is likely to be in for a tougher time against the Blue Devils than he faced against Gonzaga, and this will be a big test for just how far Edey has come and what his ceiling can be this season.

I will admit that I was a bit down on Duke going into the Xavier game, with their ugly win against Oregon State and their loss to Kansas in mind. But they did exactly what they needed to do to beat the Musketeers, and Roach and Mitchell stepping up after tough games against the Beavers is very, very encouraging.

Both of these teams are still breaking in new faces, but we should still get an entertaining matchup. It’s unfortunate that it will be right in the middle of a busy NFL Sunday, but that’s what multiple devices are for.

Who will come out on top? I’d love to say that deciding on my Duke vs Purdue prediction was straightforward, but I will admit that I had to deliberate on it for a while. But in the end, I expect the Blue Devils to pull it out and leave Portland with the first hardware of the Jon Scheyer era.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.