Duke vs Miami Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Hurricanes be too hot to handle at home?

Eddie Griffin

Are the Duke Blue Devils heating up? Saturday’s 63-57 win over rival North Carolina gave them just their second three-game win streak of the season, but it’s a little too early to say that they are really surging just yet.

Now, if they win tonight at #19 Miami (7:00 pm ET, ESPN) and on Saturday at #8 Virginia (4:00 pm ET, ESPN), then the Blue Devils will start to merit some buzz.

With their three straight wins, Duke (17-6, 8-4 ACC) is now just a game and a half behind first-place Clemson in the conference standings.

With eight regular season games left, the ACC regular season title is still very much in play for Duke, but they are still looking up at Clemson (18-6, 10-3), Pitt (16-7, 9-3), Virginia (17-4, 9-3), NC State (19-5, 9-4), and Miami (18-5, 9-4).

Can the Blue Devils shake things up further in the ACC standings tonight? Read on for our Duke vs Miami basketball prediction, as well as our picks for tonight’s Blue Devils vs Hurricanes matchup.

Duke vs Miami Odds

Odds are via FanDuel as of Monday, February 6, 2023, at 3:53 pm ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

  • Duke +2.5 (-102)
  • Miami -2.5 (-120)

Over/Under

  • Over 145.5 (-110)
  • Under 145.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Duke +136
  • Miami -164

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Can Duke Depend on Defense to Be Decisive at Miami?

Entering tonight, Miami ranks 2nd in the ACC in points per game (78.3 PPG) and first in field goal percentage (48.2%).

But in their 68-66 loss at Duke on January 21, the Hurricanes were held to their joint-fewest points of the season–they were held to 66 in a two-point win at UCF and in a two-point home win over Virginia–and shot only 34.9% from the field.

They couldn’t have been much better from the perimeter, making 10 of 21 (47.6%) from three. But two-point shooting doomed them in the loss in Durham, as they made just 12 of their 42 two-point attempts, which comes out to 28.6%.

Those numbers say a lot without any added context, but when you consider that the Hurricanes are shooting 55.1% on two-point shots this season (25th in Division I in D-I games only), it drives home even further how rough things were for Miami that day at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

The Blue Devils produced a similar performance in Saturday’s win over UNC, as the Tar Heels shot just 34.3% (24 of 70) from the field overall and 39.5% (17 of 43) on two-point shots and were held to a season low in points.

So, we know that Duke can do the job defensively at home, but can they do it on the road tonight? Apart of their wins over Boston College and Georgia Tech, results have been less than stellar.

  • 81-70 loss at Wake Forest: 26 of 53 (49.1%) FG, 7 of 19 (36.8%) 3PT
  • 84-60 loss at NC State: 33 of 70 (47.1%) FG, 10 of 26 (38.5%) 3PT
  • 72-64 loss at Clemson: 27 of 59 (45.8%), 3 of 17 (17.6%) 3PT
  • 78-75 loss at Virginia Tech: 28 of 49 (57.1%) FG, 10 of 19 (52.6%) 3PT

Those struggles are especially glaring when consistent offensive production continues to be an issue for the Blue Devils.

Duke vs Miami Prediction and Picks

Blue Devils vs Hurricanes Prediction: Miami to win

Blue Devils vs Hurricanes Picks: Miami team total over 74.5 (Best Value: FanDuel) & Miami -2.5 (FanDuel)

I don’t see the Blue Devils repeating their previous defensive success against the Hurricanes tonight on the road.

And when they haven’t been particularly prolific on the offensive end, even allowing 75 points will likely be too much for Duke.

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Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade. He joined the ranks of Betting News as a content manager. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade. He joined the ranks of Betting News as a content manager. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.