#3 Duke vs. #2 LSU Prediction & Picks (Women’s Sweet Sixteen): Can the Blue Devils Tame the Tigers?

Four of the women's March Madness Sweet Sixteen matchups are between teams who already played one another this season. Only one of the four, tonight's Duke vs. LSU nightcap, is a rematch of a non-conference contest.

The Blue Devils, the No. 3 seed in the Sacramento 2 Regional, reached the Sweet Sixteen for the third straight season with wins over 14-seed Charleston (81-64) and sixth-seeded Baylor (69-46).

Duke (26-8) will go for its second straight Elite Eight trip vs. LSU, the No. 2 seed in the Sacramento 2 Regional.

The Tigers (29-5) were one of the most impressive teams in the opening week of the tournament. In the first round, they blasted 15-seed Jacksonville 116-58, with seven players scoring in double figures. And in the second round, they torched 7-seed Texas Tech 101-47, with five players scoring in double figures and two recording double-doubles.

When LSU visited Duke on December 4, the heavily-favored Tigers trailed by 14 inside the first four minutes but owned the Blue Devils from there in a 93-77 win at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Even though much has changed for Duke since, the odds are still against them vs. LSU. At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, the Tigers are favored by a sizable margin, with a total in the mid 140s.

Duke vs. LSU TLDR

The Tigers should win, but tonight's rematch in Sacramento will be closer than the regular season matchup between the two teams in December.

Duke vs. LSU Matchup Information

• Matchup: #3 Duke vs. #2 LSU (2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament Sacramento 2 Sweet Sixteen)
• Location (Venue): Sacramento, California (Golden 1 Center)
• Date: Friday, March 27, 2026
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Duke vs. LSU Odds and Probabilities

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Friday, March 27, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Tale of the Tape: Duke vs. LSU

Duke vs. LSU Prediction and Analysis

With the loss to the Tigers in December, the Blue Devils dropped to 3-6. Duke entered the season ranked in the top 10 but struggled in a stout starting slate, losing to Baylor, West Virginia, South Florida, South Carolina, UCLA, and LSU.

But that since that loss to LSU, Duke has won 23 of 25, losing only at Clemson and North Carolina. In the rematch vs. LSU, Duke has a chance to show just how much of a leap has been made since early December.

Defense has been key in this run and will tell the tale for the Blue Devils in this matchup. Duke allowed 85, 83, 89, and 93 points in a four-game skid vs. South Florida, South Carolina, UCLA, and LSU but has allowed 70+ points just twice since, in a 78-74 win at Cal on January 8 and a 74-69 loss at North Carolina on March 1.

Will they be up to the task against the Tigers? Entering today, No. 1 LSU (95.3 PPG) was more than six points ahead of No. 2 UConn (89.1 PPG) atop the national scoring charts, The Tigers have now scored 100+ points 16 times this season, and they have scored 90+ points 21 times.

They aren't unstoppable, however. South Carolina held LSU to fewer than 80 points twice in two head-to-head wins, Texas held LSU to 64 points in a 13-point win in Austin, and Vanderbilt limited the Tigers to a season-low 61 points in a win in Nashville.

For context, the Gamecocks and Longhorns are two of the three teams ahead of the Blue Devils in adjusted defensive efficiency. Though I like LSU to come out on top, Duke's defense will at least keep this one close enough to at least cover.

Duke vs. LSU Picks

1) Duke Team Total Over 67.5 (-115 at Lucky Rebel)

2) Duke +10 (-119 at Lucky Rebel)

Bart Torvik's projections for today's women's March Madness games have the Tigers taking care of business against the Blue Devils, but as a 78-70 win that would see both of these bets hit.

I do think Duke will need to score some points to keep up, and while defense is the team's strength, the Blue Devils do have six players who average at least 8.3 PPG, and five scored in double figures in the first matchup with the Tigers.

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