#9 Duke vs #18 Michigan State, Prediction: Defense Wins the Champions Classic
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Tue Nov 14, 2023, 8:42 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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The State Farm Champions Classic is taking place at the United Center in Chicago tonight! It features two fantastic games including four blue bloods of College Hoops.
Tonight, we will talk about the Duke Blue Devils taking on the Michigan State Spartans. Now, normally both teams would be coming into this game with an undefeated record, but that simply isn't the case.
Both squads are 1-1 and both teams were beaten at home. The Blue Devils opened up hosting Dartmouth, and handled business in Cameron Indoor Arena. However, the next game, they hosted the #12 Arizona Wildcats and former UNC Tar Heel, Caleb Love. The Wildcats up set the Blue Devils at home, beating Duke 78-73 on their home floor.
Sparty had something similar happen to them, as they hosted the James Madison Dukes. At the time, Michigan State was the #4 team in the country, but they were upset by JMU 79-76 in overtime. A rude awakening for Tom Izzo and his team, they turned it around and got a win against Southern Indiana.
Now, on a neutral floor, these teams square off in the regular season. During the 2021-2022 March Madness tournament, Duke beat Michigan State in the Round of 32, 85-76, but the Blue Devils were the #2 Seed taking on the #7 Spartans.
A year prior, during the 2020-2021 season was the last time these two teams played each other in the Champions Classic. The 8th ranked Michigan State Spartans won the game over #6 Duke, 75-69.
Now the Blue Devils look to get their revenge over the Spartans, and prove they are still one of the best in the country, even without Coach K.
Let's break this one down and find our best bets!
Duke vs Michigan State Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: United Center (Chicago, IL)
- Date: Tuesday, November 14th, 2023
- Kick Off: 7:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Betting Odds
Spread
- Duke -3.5 (-110)
- Michigan State +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Duke -175
- Michigan State +150
Total
- Over 142 (-110)
- Under 142 (-110)
Free Picks: Duke vs Michigan State
Tyson Walker looks to lead the Spartans to a deep run in March
Tyson Walker is the heart and soul of this Tom Izzo team. Last year, he led the Spartans in minutes, points and steals, doing it all on both sides of the floor.
Michigan State returned plenty of talent, but didn't necessarily showcase it in their opening loss to the Dukes. Walker went for 35 points and 6 steals, but that wasn't enough to get it done. The Spartans only had one other player in double figures.
In that loss, Michigan State was only 1/20 from deep. That is not sustainable and I known they will improve from beyond the arc. But tonight is all about defense.
The Blue Devils are pissed off coming of their home loss to the Wildcats. Arizona had all 5 starters score at least 11 points, and only rotated in a total of 8 guys.
Duke is one of the deepest teams in the country, and they will need to utilize their bench in order to beat this Spartans team. Look for Duke to pay hard, on ball defense, and sub frequently to keep fresh legs on the court.
Overall, I see this being a low scoring grunge battle, staying well below the total.
I think Duke sneaks away with a 65-62 victory tonight.
The Pick: Duke/Michigan State Under 142 (-110) Bovada
NCAA Basketball Player Props
Mark Mitchell is earning his minutes for the Blue Devils
Now, couple of things to preface this pick. First and foremost, I typically do not dabble in College Hoops Player Props, for a couple of different reasons, but one being there are simply too many to keep track of.
There are 362 Division 1 Basketball teams, and I try to keep track of all of them as best I can regarding sides and totals. When you mix in the literal thousands of props offered as well, the market is enormous. So in order for me to limit an already gigantic slate, I tend to stay away from the College Hardwood props.
Nevertheless, I found one tonight.
Mark Mitchell over 0.5 Threes (-110)
Mark Mitchell. He's hitting a 3. And all we need is one.
Now, this guy might be a game time decision anyways, as he sat out against Dartmouth. But, he did play 30 minutes against Arizona, so I assume he will be on the court in full force.
I actually watched this kid play in high school at Bishop Miege next to future NBA Pros Bol Bol and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, and let me say, this kid can play. But he is more of a slasher, and certainly not a post up in the corner and shoot kind of guy, so believe me when I say, this one is going to be sweaty.
Mitchell was 0/4 from deep against Arizona, but he kept shooting which is the point I want to make here.
Last season, Mitchell shot 35.2% from deep throughout the season, but was only 19/54 in 35 games played. That's an average of just 1.5 3PA per game. This season, he is on pace to triple that number already.
Mitchell is going to see more minutes for this Duke team, and unless he starts knocking them down like crazy, he's going to get plenty of open looks from deep.
Tonight, I think he finally hits his first of the season, and again, all we need is one. He's hit a three in 4 of his L8 games, and he's taken 17 3PA in those 8 games.
The volume is increasing, teams will let him shoot until he makes one, and I think he makes one tonight.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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