#6 Duke vs. #20 Louisville Picks and Predictions: Ranked ACC Showdown
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Tue Jan 06, 2026, 9:05 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Two of the best teams in the ACC go head to head at the KFC Yum! Center as part of college hoops' Super Tuesday slate! We've got a massive matchup as No. 6 Duke takes on the No. 20 Louisville Cardinals on the road and they are also coming off a loss. Could that make the hosts extra dangerous? Jon Scheyer and Duke finally lost to Texas Tech, but since then have responded with two straight wins. Do we trust the Blue Devils to return to form tonight? Let's get into our favorite picks and analysis for this contest.
Best Bet: Duke ML (-112) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#6 Duke Blue Devils vs. #20 Louisville Cardinals NCAA Basketball Insights
Khani Rooths is a crucial piece off the bench for the Cardinals this season
Duke has been nearly perfect all year. They are 13-1 overall and started the season by covering six straight spreads. However, they have covered just once over their last eight games overall. This will be just the second time this season that the Blue Devils are favored by a single possession (won by six as one point favorites at East Lansing), and it makes sense, because the Cardinals are good.
Plus, Louisville has all the motivation on their side, as they find themselves in a classic "bounce back spot at home". Coming off a road loss to Stanford as seven point favorites, the Cardinals have actually covered 9/14 spreads this season, including going 4-3 in single digit spreads. They will be without Mikel Brown Jr. again, but they've been playing without him. Can they figure out a way to pull off this upset at home?
Matchup Information – Duke vs. Louisville – January 6
- Venue & Location: KFC Yum! Center (Louisville, KY)
- Date: Tuesday, January 6, 2025
- Kick Off: 7:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Duke vs. Louisville Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of January 6, 2025 at 8:34 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Duke -1 (-106)
- Louisville +1 (-114)
Moneyline
- Duke -112
- Louisville -108
Total
- Over 162.5 (-110)
- Under 162.5 (-110)
Getting points with Louisville at home would typically be the move in this situation, but the ACC is very lopsided. Duke, Louisville and North Carolina are near the top, and then we have quite the gap (in my eyes). Point being, Duke knows how important this specific game is for them, and I have a feeling they come out on top.
#6 Duke vs. #20 Louisville NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Can Duke pull off this tough win at the KFC Yum! Center against Louisville?
Duke vs. Louisville Prediction: Duke Wins and Covers, Under 162.5
Best Bet: Duke ML (-119) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Mikel Brown Jr. hasn't been on the court since December 13 against Memphis. He has missed four straight games for the Cardinals, and it will be number five tonight. Not only is this future lottery pick a pure scorer, putting up 16.6 per game, but he makes his teammates better as well. The attention he demands opens things up for Ryan Conwell, Isaac McKneely and the rest of the Cardinals shooters. With him on the sidelines, that's all the more reason for Duke to lock up everyone else.
Louisville shoots more threes than anyone in the country, and their shooting percentage increases dramatically at home. They rebound on both sides of the ball, but fail to control the free throw line. The Blue Devils are top 30 in opponent 3P%, as well as ranking top 45 in FT Rate offense and top 15 in FT Rate defense, even away from home. Without Brown on the floor, the defensive side of things should be much easier.
I see Duke severely slowing this game down, limiting the Cardinals possessions, and earning a tough road win in the ACC.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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