Coming off one of their biggest wins in recent years, the DePaul Blue Demons now pack up and head to Indianapolis to take on the Butler Bulldogs. Butler is coming off a 77 to 66 road win over Seton Hall on Saturday. On the other side, DePaul has won three straight conference games, something the program has not done in 20 years. They took down rival Marquette in front of the largest student section Wintrust Arena has ever seen. The entire building was packed with DePaul faithful. The question now becomes whether this is a letdown spot for the Blue Demons, or the start of something bigger. I have thoughts.
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I believe the under is the best option here. DePaul is coming off one of the most emotional wins the program has had in many years, but fading them outright is not easy. The Blue Demons play suffocating defense and rank inside the top 50 nationally. On the road, that number improves to top 25. Their identity this season is defense, and Chris Holtmann has been clear that this is how he wants his team to play. Offensively, DePaul is solid, but they are not as good as they looked on Friday. Against Marquette, they shot 47.7% from the floor and 45.8% from beyond the arc. A large portion of that came from CJ Gunn, who went 7 for 13 from deep and finished with 31 points. DePaul is not known for consistent outside shooting, as they are converting just 34% from three on the season. They clearly fed off the home crowd, something they have not experienced at that level since the Ray Meyer era. On the road, offensive regression feels likely.
Butler's defense is designed to limit perimeter looks. At home, they rank 25th in three-point rate defense and 84th in three-point percentage defense. Overall, the Bulldogs sit 73rd defensively. They also excel at keeping teams off the free throw line, ranking fifth in free throw rate defense. That is impressive for a team that prefers to play with pace. Butler ranks 50th in tempo at home, while DePaul prefers to slow games down, ranking 258th away from home.
For DePaul to keep this game close, they must control tempo and defend at a high level. Their offense is unlikely to keep pace with one of the more efficient offenses in the Big East. Butler attacks the glass well, but DePaul may be better at defending it, ranking 21st in two point percentage defense. In 4 true road games this season, the Blue Demons rank 5th in protecting the glass. Even with the emotional high from Friday night, if DePaul leans into its defensive identity and forces a slower game, I expect this matchup to stay under 150.
