Friday Junior has arrived, and so has an incredible slate filled with mid major college hoops that is begging for us to get involved, so we shall. Tonight, the red hot Delaware State Hornets head to Philadelphia to take on the Saint Josephs Hawks. One team is riding a two game winning streak, the other is coming off a tough loss to a top 75 team. Who is going to come out of this one?
Letdown City, USA
The Hornets have been on a tear over their last three games. They lost to Navy by seven as 14.5 point underdogs, then won outright against Delaware as 7.5 point underdogs, and most recently won outright against Longwood as 13.5 point road dogs. They are on a literal heater at the moment. Meanwhile, Saint Josephs is coming off a strong game against Syracuse last Thursday. The Hawks kept it close throughout, but ultimately fell 71 to 63. For those that tailed last week, the Hawks covered the 13.5 point spread.
With how hot the Hornets have been, it feels like time for them to come back down to Earth. The Hawks have had a full week to prepare for this matchup after their tough road loss to the Orange. According to Haslametrics, Saint Josephs holds an edge in all-play percentage, average season rank, consistency, and home court advantage.
Due for Regression
Despite the recent surge from Delaware State, there are still plenty of red flags. They lost to a non Division 1 opponent by 4 on a neutral site court. They also faced Syracuse earlier this season and lost by 39. Of the Hornets 4 wins this season, half have come in their last 2 games. The other 2 came against non Division 1 teams. In their 8 losses this year, Delaware State is losing by an average of 20.25 points per game, all while playing the 17th easiest schedule in college basketball.
The Hawks do not have the flashiest offense in the country, but their defense is solid. As a team, they excel at offensive rebounding, free throw shooting, and defending the interior, all ranking inside the top 110. At home, they have been especially strong. Although they have only played 4 home games, they have taken much better care of the basketball and knocked down free throws at a high rate. They have also won all 4 home games by an average margin of 20.25 points.
All in all, this sets up as a prime get right spot for the Hawks after a tough road loss to Syracuse. While the Hornets have impressed with back to back outright wins as sizable underdogs, this feels like a classic letdown spot.