Dayton vs. Saint Louis Prediction & Best Bets: Perimeter Prowess the Key for Billikens

Thanks to a furious fightback and a clutch closing run, the top seed remains alive in the Atlantic 10 tournament. That is good news for a March Madness bubble team out there somewhere, but that relief will only be temporary if Dayton can do what George Washington didn't do vs. Saint Louis as the Flyers face the Billikens (1 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network) for a spot in Sunday's championship game.

Saint Louis held an 11-8 lead five minutes into the game, but a 28-4 run for George Washington put the Revolutionaries ahead 36-15 with seven minutes remaining in the first half.

But the Billikens (28-4) didn't mail it in, and in a game that featured second half runs by both teams, they had the last word by scoring 10 of the last 12 points in an 88-81 win.

That comeback sets up a semifinal showdown with fourth-seeded Dayton, who booked this matchup vs. Saint Louis with a 68-63 win over Saint Bonaventure.

The Bonnies, who were 4-14 in A-10 play, were trying to win their third game in three days and stayed within striking distance the entire way. But Javon Bennett's six threes and 27 points helped the Flyers (22-10) see off a stiff challenge.

The winner of this matchup will move on to face the winner of Saint Joseph's vs. VCU, the latter of whom can all but ensure a spot in the field of 68 with a victory.

Dayton has been hot down the stretch, but even with that recent form in mind, Saint Louis is still a firm favorite at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks.

Dayton vs. Saint Louis Odds

Odds are from Lucky Rebel.

Dayton vs. Saint Louis Prediction and Analysis

With its closing run in the final 1:24 against George Washington, Saint Louis matched its scoring average for the season. And with 54 second-half points against the Revolutionaries, the Billikens nearly matched their total output from their previous game, an 86-57 loss at George Mason.

It was the 22^nd time this season that the Billikens hit the 80-point mark, and they remain undefeated when doing so.

Dayton is one of the few teams that can lay claim to having some defensive success vs. Saint Louis this season. In a 77-62 win at UD Arena on February 24, the Flyers held the Billikens to 24% shooting from three and 40% shooting overall from the field and forced 15 turnovers.

However, the Flyers have also experienced the other extreme. In the preceding matchup, the Billikens made 17 threes, shot 61% from three and 63% overall from the field, and scored 102 points in a 31-point win on January 30.

Offensively, Dayton is not equipped to keep up vs. Saint Louis. The Flyers have scored 80+ points just seven times this season and only once against A-10 opposition, in an 82-67 win at George Mason on February 18.

With that in mind, defense is likely the lone path to a Dayton victory in this matchup. However, the outlook is not favorable there.

Saint Louis was off from outside at Dayton, but the Flyers are 10^th in the 14-team A-10 in defending the three this season. And a big day from outside is brewing for the Billikens (40.2%), who dropped to second nationally behind Belmont (40.3%) with a couple of substandard showings against George Maosn and George Washington. It may not be a blowout, but don't expect Saint Louis to have a second straight Steel City scare.

Dayton vs. Saint Louis Best Bets

Saint Louis -5.5 (-115 at Lucky Rebel)

Bart Torvik's projections for today have this one down as a 78-74 win, but my forecast is a bit different.

Dayton owns a 5-4 ATS record as an underdog this season, and the Flyers' head-to-head win last month came as a 3.5-point underdog. But I feel a breakout coming for Saint Louis from outside.

The Billikens have not gone four straight games this season without making at least 11 threes, and they are at three after making nine against Loyola, four against George Mason, and 10 against George Washington.

Also, they have shot short of 40% from three in three or more consecutive games just once this season, and after shooting 16.7% (4 of 24) against George Mason and 33.3% (10 of 30) against George Washington, another substandard performance is unlikely today. If things play out as they should, Dayton does not have the firepower to counter it.

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