Cal vs Stanford: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | March 12, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Wed Mar 12, 2025, 12:24 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Cal has played an exhausting amount of basketball over the past four days, including a four-overtime loss and a double-overtime win. Now, they face a well-rested Stanford team with a strong defense that has already held them in check once this season. With fatigue setting in and Stanford controlling the pace, Cal's offense is primed for regression.
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Last Month in CBB: 47-48 (-4.76 Units)
#15 Cal vs #7 Stanford Odds
Can Stanford hold down Cal after playing nearly four games in four days?
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Spread
Cal: +6 (-115)
Stanford: -6 (-105)
Total
Over: 138.5 (-110)
Under: 138.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Cal: +220
Stanford: -260
#15 Cal vs #7 Stanford Best Bet
No team has played more basketball in the last four days than the Cal Golden Bears. Since Saturday, they have endured a four-overtime loss to Notre Dame to close the regular season, then battled through a double-overtime win against Virginia Tech, 82-73, to advance in the ACC Tournament. Now, they face a well-rested Stanford team that has been sitting on a 48-58 loss to Louisville.
The Golden Bears should be exhausted, essentially playing three and a half games in four days—an immense toll in such a short span. That is why I have no interest in picking a side. Instead, I am strictly fading Cal's offense and taking their team total under 66.5.
Since February 1, Cal ranks 161st in offensive efficiency, yet they have one of the worst shooting profiles in the country. They are 11th worst in effective field goal percentage, 16th worst in two-point shooting, and 314th in three-point shooting. Despite their recent scoring bursts—110 against Notre Dame and 82 against Virginia Tech—some regression is inevitable. If you remove overtime points, Cal managed just 60 in regulation against Virginia Tech and 68 against Notre Dame. Now, they must contend with a Stanford defense that has been excelling for over a month.
Stanford's defense ranks 73rd nationally and excels at both interior and perimeter defense. Their biggest flaw has been sending opponents to the free-throw line, but if they can limit Cal's trips, staying under 66.5 should be within reach. The Cardinal already held the Golden Bears to 61 points in their last meeting, proving they can stifle this offense.
With all the basketball Cal has played this week, they will likely want a slower tempo, which aligns with Stanford's style. The Cardinal ranks in the upper 200s in pace, and if they control the tempo, we should be in great shape. The question is, how much does Cal have left in the tank?
Best Bet: Cal Team Total Under 66.5 (-105) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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