Cal vs. Florida State Prediction & Best Bets: Will the Streaking Seminoles Play Spoiler?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Thu Mar 12, 2026, 8:27 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The alma mater of Jason Kidd and Jaylen Brown has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2016, but two more wins may put that streak to an end. However, the mission for Cal is much easier said than done, starting with today's ACC tournament clash vs. Florida State (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPNU).
Whether you believe the CBS Sports projection that the Bears (21-10, 9-9 ACC) are the last team in or Joe Lunardi's view that the Bears are all the last team listed in the "Next Four Out" column, the fact is that a one-and-done in Charlotte would be disastrous for their March Madness hopes.
With a win tonight, ninth-seeded Cal would set up a make-or-break matchup with top seed and top-ranked Duke in tomorrow's quarterfinals.
Upsetting the Blue Devils might move the Bears into the field of 68, but they can't look ahead too far. That is because the eighth-seeded Seminoles (17-14, 10-8 ACC) are one of the hottest teams around right now after starting 8-12 overall and 1-6 in conference play.
In fact, the turnaround for Florida State started with a win vs. Cal on January 28. That 63-61 victory in Tallahassee kickstarted a run of nine wins in 11 games, and had it not taken so long for the wins to start coming for first-year head coach Luke Loucks, the Seminoles would be in the NCAA tournament conversation.
While it's too late to slide themselves onto the bubble, FSU can shove Cal off of it if its hot streak continues tonight in Charlotte. Will it? The Seminoles are a clear favorite at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, but the Bears have a winning ATS record as an underdog this season.
Cal vs. Florida State Prediction and Analysis
The Bears could have been in a less perilous position at this point, but multiple missed opportunities have hurt their cause.
In addition to the two-point loss vs. Florida State, Cal fell by three at Virginia Tech (a game in which they led most of the way), went down at Syracuse in double overtime, and lost to Pitt by 16 at home.
The Seminoles have their own what ifs. Five of their losses have come by four or fewer points, a two-point defeat at Florida, a four-point home loss to Duke, a one-point home loss to Wake Forest, a three-point loss at SMU, and a three-point home loss to Virginia.
But better late than never, right? And FSU is clicking at the business end of the season, led by Robert McCray V (15.6 PPG, 6.1 APG, 3.8 RPG), Chauncey Wiggins (13.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG), and Lajae Jones (12.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG). That trio combined for 60 points (Wiggins 31, McCray 17, Jones 12) in the Seminoles' 91-78 win over SMU last Saturday and can give the Bears real fits.
Cal can offer a pretty stiff counterpunch offensively vs. FSU, as Mark Madsen's squad features four players averaging at least 13.3 PPG this season.
That firepower hasn't translated into consistent success, however. The Bears were held to fewer than 75 points 10 times in ACC play, and they won just three of those games.
With the Seminoles on a decent run offensively, the Bears will need their scoring stars to contribute tonight if they are to carry their NCAA Tournament aspirations into a showdown with the nation's top team. They may well do that, but FSU is on fire right now. Look for that run to continue and for Cal's bubble to burst in Charlotte.
Cal vs. Florida State Best Bets
Florida State Team Total Over 78 (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
The over for the game has a lot of appeal here, especially with Bart Torvik's projected total coming in at 155. But this feels like the better move.
Since being held to 63 points by these same Bears, the Seminoles have averaged 78.9 PPG over their last 10 games and hit the 80-point mark six times in that stretch. Cal has allowed 80+ points seven times all season, but that won't put me off here with how favorable the forecast is.
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