Butler vs Xavier: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | February 18, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Tue Feb 18, 2025, 12:51 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Butler and Xavier come into this game with high-scoring trends, but the underlying numbers suggest a different outcome for the total. Despite both teams finding success offensively, defensive strengths and other factors point toward a more subdued scoring affair. Given these elements, this matchup looks to be a strong under play.
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Butler vs Xavier Odds
Will Butler's offense stay hot against Xavier?
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Spread
Butler: +7 (-112)
Xavier: -7 (-108)
Total
Over: 153.5 (-105)
Under: 153.5 (-115)
Moneyline
Butler: +250
Xavier: -300
Butler vs Xavier Best Bet
Originally, this matchup looked like a prime opportunity to take the over, but after a deeper look, the under appears to be the better play.
Why? Butler is coming off three straight games scoring 82 or more points, including a 97-86 win over Georgetown on Saturday that soared over the total by 43 points. Xavier has also been on an offensive tear, scoring 85 or more in back-to-back games and hitting the over in seven straight, dating back to their win over Marquette on January 18. While Butler's trends lean toward the over, the offensive success both teams have had makes the under even more appealing.
This game will be dictated by a fast-paced Xavier team, which ranks in the top 100 at home in tempo. However, both teams boast top-100 defenses. Butler has been elite at defending the perimeter on the road, ranking second nationally in three-point defense and 13th in three-point rate defense. If Butler can contain Xavier's highly efficient three-point shooting, it will be a huge factor in keeping this game under. Additionally, Butler is the most disciplined team in the country when it comes to fouling, ranking first in free throw rate defense away from home.
Offensively, Butler has some key weaknesses. They are highly inconsistent from the free-throw line, ranking 278th in percentage. Rebounding has been a major issue on both ends, ranking 265th offensively and 311th defensively. They also struggle with turnovers, both committing them at a high rate and failing to force them.
Xavier, meanwhile, has a solid home defense, ranking 86th in adjusted efficiency and 129th in effective field goal percentage. Unlike Butler, they are strong on the defensive glass, ranking 84th. However, they struggle on the offensive boards, ranking 312th, limiting their ability to generate second-chance points.
With Xavier set to face Seton Hall on the road next and Butler heading to Chicago to take on DePaul, both teams have matchups against the Big East's bottom tier looming. Expect a defensive battle here, with points at a premium.
Under.
Best Bet: Game Under 153.5 on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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