Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions: Thursday Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Mar 12, 2026, 1:05 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Conference Championship week is in full swing, and we are down to the quarterfinals in the ACC, the Big 12 and the Big East, while the Big Ten and SEC have their third round matchups today. Plenty of action on the hardwood all day long, so let's tap in to our CBB expert's favorite NCAA Basketball picks for Thursday!
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Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions March 12
Northwestern Wildcats vs. #18 Purdue Boilermakers NCAA Basketball Picks
Nick Martinelli ranks No. 5 in the nation in points per game, putting up 23.9 per contest
Best Bet: Northwestern +12.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
The Wildcats are making a Cinderella-esque run in the Big Ten tournament. They knocked off Penn State and Indiana to advance to this third round matchup against the Boilermakers, who are a team I have no faith in. Purdue has all the pieces, they have tons of talent and returned plenty of production from last year and even added some great players in the portal. Yet they have still come up short this season plenty of times.
Do I think they win this game? Yes. But covering a double digit spread against this Northwestern team is going to be tough. They only beat them by four on the road as 12.5 point favorites in the regular season. Could this line be telling that they blow out the Wildcats today on a neutral site? Absolutely. But Northwestern is used to these rims, Purdue is playing their first game of the tourney, and I have faith in Nick Martinelli playing hero ball in order to keep his team in this contest.
An outright win might be wishful thinking for the Wildcats, but covering a double digit spread in what should be a slower paced game seems very reasonable.
BYU Cougars vs. #5 Houston Cougars NCAA Basketball Picks
Robert Wright and BYU have won two straight in the Big 12 Tournament can they take down the Houston Cougars tonight?
Best Bets: BYU +10 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
The Cougars face the Cougars today in the Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinals, and I think BYU is getting too many points. Houston's offense is simply not equipped to run up the score and cover big spreads, especially considering how slow they play. While BYU will look to speed this game up, their offense should be able to take advantage of opportunities given.
Houston beat BYU on the road by 11 earlier this year as 1.5 point favorites, staying well under the 148.5 total. I expect this game to be painfully slow (for the most part), which means the Cougars (Houston) will need to be VERY efficient on offense in order to cover this number. I simply don't think they have it in them, considering they lost three straight against ranked opponents towards the end of the season. Sure, they won three consecutive overall, but against Oklahoma State, Colorado and Baylor, I'm not sure that prepared them to face this BYU team who is very hungry to show they can make a run in March.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas A&M Aggies NCAA Basketball Picks
Texas A&M is still looking to improve their seeding in the NCAA Tournament
Best Bet: Oklahoma/Texas A&M Over 161.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This number is large, but not quite high enough for the pace that we will see in this game. Bucky Ball is not afraid to run and they'll certainly turn up the tempo against the Sooners. In the first meeting, we saw 159 total points, staying comfortably under the 165.5 total. In the next contest, we saw the same total, but only 146 combined points. Now the books have adjusted and placed this total four points lower than the previous games, but I will still back plenty of points.
Texas A&M plays fast and shoots tons of threes, while Oklahoma fails to defend the perimeter. However, offensively, the Sooners are capable of keeping up with their efficient shooting and willingness to attack the rim. I might be falling for a trap backing this over for the third time this year after two straight losers, but I still see plenty of shots falling at Bridgestone Arena tonight.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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