Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions: Thursday CBB
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Mar 05, 2026, 11:45 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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We are just a few short days from the college hoops regular season coming to a close, yet there are still 46 CBB games on Thursday's slate. There's a mix of regular season contests as well as conference tournaments in full swing, so let's see what our NCAA Basketball experts found for their favorite picks on the slate.
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Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions March 5
#3 Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes NCAA Basketball Picks
Elliot Cadeau and the Wolverines face the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City tonight
Slight Lean: Michigan/Iowa Over 147.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Michigan is in a tough look ahead spot tonight against Iowa at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. They already locked up the one seed in the Big Ten tournament, and likely have done enough to secure a top seed in the Big Dance as well, but with Sunday's season finale against their rival on the horizon, their focus in this specific matchup could be minimal. The opposite is the case for the Hawkeyes. The hosts need a win, big time. Not just for conference standings, but possibly to improve their seeding in March Madness as well.
They are currently slotted as a nine seed, but could see that drop if they don't win some games in the conference tournament. Coming off a bad loss against Penn State, Iowa is back at home for Senior Night, as they head to Lincoln on Sunday to end their season. Slowing down Michigan will be tough, and I simply don't think the Hawkeyes have it in them. However can they keep up offensively? The Wolverines will certainly try to run, something the Hawkeyes do not like to do. But they might not have a choice considering how dominant Michigan is at controlling the pace of the game.
Slight lean on the over for me, but nothing official as of right now. Follow my twitter @Shaggy_Bets to be informed on what exactly I bet in this game closer to tip off.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. #8 Michigan State Spartans NCAA Basketball Picks
Jeremy Fears and the Spartans are one of the best defensive teams in the nation
Best Bet: Rutgers/Michigan State Under 141.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Under, under, under. The Spartans are also in a look ahead spot as they face their rival on the road this Sunday. But this defense has been outstanding all year long, and I do not have faith in the Scarlet Knights to do their part. At home, the Spartans are No. 6 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, and are one of the best rebounding teams on both sides of the ball. They play slow, limit their foes possessions, and turn it into good looks on the other side of the floor.
These teams went to overtime the last time they played, but I don't expect Michigan State to let it get that close again. Rutgers is a team that is also very slow, ranking around No. 250 in possessions per game, and they can't shoot to save their life. The Scarlet Knights are bottom 30 in eFG% overall, and cannot contain teams on the offensive glass. Michigan State should see plenty of second chance opportunities, which would allow them to reset, pull the ball out, and burn more time off the clock.
Once they jump out to a substantial lead, they will run their sets and burn up all the time in the second half.
South Florida Bulls vs. Memphis Tigers NCAA Basketball Picks
Izaiyah Nelson and the Bulls take on the Memphis Tigers tonight on the road
Best Bet: South Florida Team Total Over 83.5 (-104) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I can't stop betting this wager. South Florida is one of the fastest teams in the nation, and so is Memphis. The problem is the Tigers don't have defense to slow down their visitors. Even if they wanted to, it's not in their DNA. The Bulls attack the rim, get to the stripe, and clean up the offensive glass as well as anyone in the nation.
They already scored 87 on this team in their own gym, and are coming off putting up 90 against Tulane. There's no stopping this train, especially not from a Penny Hardaway coached team that ranks bottom 30 in FT Rate defense and bottom 15 in offensive rebounds allowed. Sure, they defend the perimeter decently, but it won't be enough if the Bulls battle on the boards all game long, which they will do without question.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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