Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions: Wednesday’s CBB

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Wed Mar 04, 2026, 1:16 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

SMU desperately needs a win in order to get back into the field of 68 for March Madness - NCAA Basketball Picks

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Hump Day Hoops are back and our NCAA Basketball experts found three of their favorite picks on tonight's CBB betting board to share with you. Let's see what they found to wager on for tonight's slate.

Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.

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Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions March 4

Texas Longhorns vs. #20 Arkansas Razorbacks NCAA Basketball Picks

Coach Cal and Arkansas play their final home game at Bud Walton Arena tonight - NCAA Basketball Picks

Coach Cal and Arkansas play their final home game at Bud Walton Arena tonight

Best Bet: Arkansas -6.5 (-118) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

I implore you to do your line shopping and make sure you get under the key number of 7 in this contest. But with that being said, this is a spot where Arkansas wins by double digits. Talking out loud makes me lean towards the Hogs Team Total Over 85.5 as well, as I expect plenty of chances to score in this matchup.

They are the best team in the nation at taking care of the basketball despite being top 25 in pace. Even though they play fast, they don't turn the ball over and are the sixth most efficient offense in the country. Coming off a horrendous offensive showing in Gainesville, this is a perfect "bounce back spot" for the Hogs at home on Senior Night. Plus, the Longhorns are in a serious "let down spot" as well. They just beat Texas A&M on the road by six as 3.5 point underdogs, but I have a feeling they won't be able to slow down their hosts.

The Longhorns are bottom 20 in forcing turnovers and No. 297 in the country in FT Rate defense. This team does a great job of hitting the glass, but I don't trust their guards to slow down Darius Acuff and company in their final game at Bud Walton Arena. Give me the Hogs in a blowout.

#22 Miami Hurricanes vs. SMU Mustangs NCAA Basketball Picks

Boopie Miller and the Ponies have a great chance to add a win to their resume tonight - NCAA Basketball Picks

Boopie Miller and the Ponies have a great chance to add a win to their resume tonight

Best Bet: SMU ML (-120) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

This isn't as simple as betting the unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent, but it does fit that trend. However, we are also going to be on the Over 160 in this game at -110 odds. Get ready for some zip, as both teams are no stranger to sprinting up and down the floor. SMU is in the top 100 in terms of pace, but jump up to No. 61 at home after averaging over 71 possessions per game. Miami is no slouch either, ranking in the top 125 in tempo. The Mustangs generate plenty of offensive chances, and after having lost two consecutive on the road, they are back in their home gym where they've won three straight by at least nine points.

Sure, this Miami team is getting hot at the right time, but it's tough to beat SMU at home, as shown by their 15-2 record in Moody Coliseum. The Hurricane's defense takes a massive hit on the road, dropping all the way to No. 266 in opponent eFG% and bottom 40 in opponent 3P% as well. The Ponies should take advantage of being in a familiar gym and knock down plenty of shots on their way to a convincing win.

Rice Owls vs. North Texas Mean Green NCAA Basketball Picks

Best Bet: Rice/North Texas Under 137.5 (-108) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

I actually wrote down under 139 this morning when labbing these games, and although the line is ticking down, it does not scare me. The Mean Green are one of the slowest offenses in the entire country, they struggle to shoot, even at home, but pride themselves on playing great defense. North Texas, a team that ranks No. 143 overall, jump into the top 55 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and opponent eFG%. Plus, they are top 10 in the country in forcing turnovers.

However, they cannot shoot, ranking bottom 20 in eFG% offensively. These two teams already played to a double overtime thriller last time, but I don't see them having extra trips up and down the floor in this matchup. Rice is No. 295 in eFG% while ranking No. 267 in possessions per game. Get ready for an absolute slog in The Super Pit tonight.

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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