Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions: Mid Major Thursday
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Feb 19, 2026, 1:15 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Despite there not being any Power Five games tonight in the college hoops world, there are still 53 low and mid major contests. Check out what our CBB experts are betting on tonight with their favorite NCAA Basketball picks.
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions February 19
Memphis vs. South Florida NCAA Basketball Picks
Izaiyah Nelson and the Bulls host the Memphis Tigers tonight in the AAC
Best Bet: South Florida Team Total Over 83.5 (-120) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
South Florida is a top 20 team in the nation in terms of pace and they do everything right in order to gain some extra offense. This team is top 12 in the country in offensive rebounding and top 35 at getting to the free throw line, where they shoot over 73% as a team. Despite the defense needing some work, we are taking that out of the equation by backing their team total.
Memphis is in the top 55 in the nation in terms of pace, and their defense completely falls off on the road. They are No. 93 in the country overall, ranking No. 37 in adjusted defensive efficiency, top 45 in opponent eFG% and No. 31 in turnovers forced. However, in true road games they drop to No. 173 overall defensively, No. 215 in opponent eFG% and fall outside the top 100 in turnovers forced. Plus, they are north of 280 in offensive rebounds allowed and bottom 10 at keeping teams off the free throw line.
South Florida should have no problem putting up a few less points than their season average (88.8).
Texas State vs. South Alabama NCAA Basketball Picks
Best Bet: Texas State/South Alabama Under 139 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
The South Alabama Jaguars are north of 300 in possessions per game, and despite being ranked No. 190 overall, they are second in the nation in FT Rate defense. They simply do not send their opponents to the free throw line. This is a team that takes care of the basketball (top 10 in turnover rate), milking the shot clock, but are in the bottom 30 in offensive rebounding, so they don't grab very many second chance opportunities.
As for the Bobcats, they are on the slower side of things, ranking No. 242 in pace in the country, and their offense takes a major hit on the road. Texas State drops to No. 271 in offensive efficiency and No. 290 in eFG%, plus they are north of 300 at getting to the stripe. In this slow paced game, I envision both teams staying under this total, where we only saw 132 total points the last time they met.
CS Northridge vs. UC Santa Barbara NCAA Basketball Picks
Aiden Mahaney and the Gauchos host the CS Northridge Matadors tonight
Best Bet: UCSB -3.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Back the Gauchos with me tonight. Santa Barbara likes to play extremely slow, but for a team ranked No. 127 in the country, they shoot the lights out of the gym. At home, the Gauchos are No. 14 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 6 in the country in eFG%. They shoot over 41.5% as a team from deep, and over 60.5% from inside the arc as well, not to mention they make 75% of their free throws as a team. If Northridge wants to run, which they will, they will simply be giving their hosts more chances to put the ball int he hoop and cover this spread.
The Matadors are the third fastest team in the country, but they are outside the top 200 in opponent eFG% and opponent 3P%, while also ranking bottom 10 in opponent 3P Rate. Santa Barbara will light it up from deep and have no problem covering this number.
UC Irvine vs. Long Beach State NCAA Basketball Picks
Best Bet: UC Irvine/Long Beach Under 143.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Now, the pace of these teams worries me a little bit, but the Anteaters defense is enough to keep this under. UC Irvine is No. 112 overall in the country, but are top 40 in FT Rate defense, top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency and are No. 6 in the nation in opponent eFG%. They actually lead the nation in 2P% defense where most of the Beach's offense comes from.
Offensively, UCI is allergic to shooting threes, and are north of 275 in eFG% as is. Long Beach is north of 300 at getting to the stripe and grabbing offensive boards, so don't expect too many extra chances for this team, even at home.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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