Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions: Thursday College Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Jan 29, 2026, 10:20 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The weekend is quickly approaching and after a few days of solid Power Five basketball, Thursday is the day we give love to the low and mid majors. Let's head towards the Pacific Coast, as we look at a couple spots in the Big Sky and Big West conferences later this evening. Here are our expert's favorite NCAA Basketball picks for tonight.
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions January 29
Montana Grizzlies vs. Portland State Vikings NCAA Basketball Picks
Terri Miller Jr. puts up 19.6 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game for the Vikings this year
Best Bet: Portland State -4 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
We are backing the Vikings tonight as they look to add another victory to their seven game winning streak. During this stretch, they've covered five spreads, and have even covered seven of their last nine overall, which includes covers against Tulane and Colorado, both on the road. This is the first meeting between these Big Sky teams, and Portland State has been playing much better basketball.
This team is very good defensively. They rank No. 151 overall, but are No. 67 in adjusted defensive efficiency, No. 55 in opponent eFG% and are No. 46 in offensive rebounds allowed. Admittedly, they send teams to the free throw line far too often, but those numbers do improve at home. They also love to slow things down and limit their opponent's possessions.
The Grizzlies do a great job of shooting the ball, but they are bottom 40 in taking care of the rock, and are seventh worst at grabbing offensive rebounds, not to mention they are bottom 50 in forcing turnovers of their own. They clearly slow down to their opponent's pace when away from home, which will give them far less chances to put the ball in the hoop than they are used to. Give me the Vikings to cover.
UC Davis Aggies vs. CS Northridge Matadors NCAA Basketball Picks
Larry Hughes II leads the Matadors with 18.6 points per game and 1.9 steals as well
Best Bet: CS Northridge -2 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Now, I was able to get the Matadors on the moneyline last night at -108. I think laying the -2 is fine, but the ML is still playable at -133 in my eyes. We have two very fast teams, so there should be plenty of chances for the home favorites to cover the spread.
The Aggies of UC Davis are a top 100 team in terms if pace. On the road, they are even faster, jumping up to No. 71 in the country, but they fall off on both sides of the ball. For starters, on offense, UC Davis does a good job at getting to the free throw line, but not so much away from home. They rank No. 56 overall in FT Rate, but drop out of the top 150 on the road, getting to the stripe less than 35% of the time. In my eyes, they take way too many threes, as they are top 100 in 3P Rate, but their shooting percentage drops over 3% on the road, shooting just 32.3% from deep, ranking No. 230 in the country. Plus they are bottom 35 in offensive rebounding.
UC Davis Defensive Struggles
How about their defense? UC Davis is No. 273 in overall efficiency, but they are bottom 12 in opponent eFG% and free throw rate defense. Plus, they are dead last at defending the perimeter. The Matadors aren't a team that takes a ton of threes, but they will force the Aggies to defend more than they are used to.
Northridge is one of the fastest teams in the nation and find themselves in a revenge spot at home, after losing to UC Davis on the road by nine earlier. They were four point underdogs in that game, they did not cover, and now we see a six point line swing in their direction when they get to host. I'll lean into the belief that it's a telling line and confidently back the Matadors at home after coming off two straight losses.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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