Auburn vs. Tennessee Prediction & Best Bets: Will the Tigers Remove Remaining Doubt?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Thu Mar 12, 2026, 10:21 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Yesterday was another pivotal day for March Madness bubble teams, with several teams missing opportunities to help themselves. One team that didn't fall flat was Auburn, and the Tigers will have the opportunity to lock down a bid this afternoon with a win over Tennessee (3 p.m. ET, SEC Network).
The Tigers (17-15), the No. 12 seed in the SEC tournament, entered yesterday's matchup against Mississippi State needing a win to remain in the March Madness mix. And after a slow start, they flipped the game completely and pulled away late in a 79-61 victory.
With the likes of Cal, Indiana, SMU, Stanford, and Virginia Tech all suffering damaging losses Tuesday and yesterday, Auburn enters today in position to lock down a spot in the bracket with a win over Tennessee (21-10), the No. 5 seed in this week's tournament in Nashville.
A loss, meanwhile, would leave the Tigers facing an anxious few days with tournament results in the Atlantic 10, Big East, Mid-American Conference, and Mountain West all potentially holding the key to which bubble boys survive the conference championship chaos and make the field of 68.
The Volunteers have no such concerns, but a run in Nashville can help them lock down the best possible seed. After dropping three of their last four games to close out the regular season, the Vols are hanging around the 5/6 line in major bracket projections.
Auburn will have a little bounce from a strong finish against Mississippi State, but the task will be much tougher vs. Tennessee, especially given the potential of a pivotal personnel boost for the Vols, who hold a clear edge at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks.
Auburn vs. Tennessee Prediction and Analysis
The win over Mississippi State, who led 33-23 late in the first half and 38-30 early in the second half, was a rather welcome one for Auburn. Entering the SEC tournament, the Tigers had lost eight of 10, but a Big Dance berth was still in play because of a tough schedule and wins over six power conference teams that will be in the field (vs. St. John's, vs. NC State, vs. Arkansas, at Florida, vs. Texas, and vs. Kentucky).
A seventh would seal the deal for Auburn, who has not fared very well vs. Tennessee in recent seasons.
The Volunteers have won five of the last seven against the Tigers, including a 77-69 win in Knoxville on January 31.
That win was spurred by 22 points and eight rebounds by Nate Ament, one of seven 20-point performances for the freshman forward in SEC play.
Ament did not play in Tennessee's last two regular season games, a win at South Carolina and a home loss to Vanderbilt, after suffering a knee injury in a 71-69 loss to Alabama on February 28.
However, the tea leaves indicate that Ament will return to action against Auburn. That the Vols scored 78 against South Carolina and 82 against Vanderbilt without Ament was notable, both considering that they were held to fewer than 75 points seven times in SEC play and leading scorer Ja'Kobi Gillespie shot 8 for 31 combined, including 1 for 15 from three, in those two games.
Would Tennessee be the pick even without Ament? Yes. A win over one of the worst teams in the SEC does not distract from the last month and a half Auburn has had. And with Ament back, the Vols should set up an anxious three days for the Tigers.
Auburn vs. Tennessee Best Bets
Tennessee -5.5 (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
The Vols had their ups and downs in SEC play, but they were reliable as a clear favorite. They were favored by five or more points 10 times, and in those 10 games, they went 8-2 SU (with two-point home losses to Kentucky and Alabama) and 6-4 ATS.
On the other side, Auburn is 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Those two wins (vs. St. John's and at Florida) are why they still have realistic hope, but if today pans out as it should, we will see if those wins and their other notable wins are enough.
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