Arkansas vs Baylor Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Razorbacks’ road woes continue in Waco?

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

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Arkansas vs Baylor Basketball Prediction & Picks: Will the Razorbacks’ road woes continue in Waco? cover


It isn’t the matchup that it would be if Arkansas was at full strength, but the Razorbacks’ showdown with #17 Baylor is still one of the headline matchups of the Big 12/SEC Challenge.

The Razorbacks (14-6, 3-5 SEC) were in the top 10 in the national rankings entering SEC play, but injuries and a downturn in performances have seen the Hogs out of the top half of the SEC and out of the polls.

But they have won back-to-back games entering their matchup with Baylor, who has won five straight games since an 0-3 start in Big 12 play and is coming off of a win over Kansas on Monday.

Will the Bears fight off the Hogs at the Ferrell Center? Read on for our Arkansas vs Baylor basketball prediction, as well as our picks and analysis for today’s matchup in Waco.

Arkansas vs Baylor Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, January 28, 2023, at 11:40 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.


  • Arkansas +6.5 (-110)
  • Baylor -6.5 (-110)


  • Over 141.5 (-110)
  • Under 141.5 (-110)


  • Arkansas +225
  • Baylor -280

Does a Fifth Straight Road Loss Beckon for Arkansas?

After beating #1 overall seed Gonzaga and reaching the Elite Eight last season, big things were expected of the Razorbacks this season despite losing a lot from last season, as they reloaded through the transfer portal and with one of the nation’s best recruiting classes.

But injuries to future lottery pick Nick Smith Jr. and key transfer addition Trevon Brazile have hurt Arkansas, along with inconsistency on both ends of the court.

But after dropping four straight games to fall to 1-5 in the SEC, the Hogs have logged consecutive wins over Ole Miss and LSU.

Home wins over two of the worst teams in the SEC doesn’t move the needle much at all on a national level or for their NCAA Tournament resume, but Arkansas needed to win those games and did.

However, going on the road to face one of the better teams in the country raises all sorts of alarm bells, given that they have lost all four of their road games in SEC play.

And of those four losses, the only team that may on a similar level as Baylor is Auburn, who beat Arkansas 72-59 three weeks ago.

That Baylor beat Kansas despite Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick having big games for the Jayhawks, while shooting only 37.1% from the field and 30% from three and getting little from leading scorer Keyonte George on the offensive end themselves, is no small feat.

It shows just how bad things could get for the Razorbacks if the Bears bring their best, because the best that Arkansas seems to have right now isn’t anywhere near what they need to win if Baylor’s best is on display.

Arkansas vs Baylor Prediction and Picks

Arkansas vs Baylor Prediction: Baylor to win

Arkansas vs Baylor Picks: Baylor team total over 74.5 (Best Value: BetOnline) & Baylor -6.5

Wilson and Dick combined to go 18 of 29 from the field overall and 5 of 12 from three, but their teammates were just 6 of 23 from the field and missed all seven of their three-point attempts.

Also, the Jayhawks were held without a point for almost five minutes in the second half, in which time Baylor turned a six-point lead into a 13-point lead and put them in position to withstand a late rally.

What Baylor did to Kansas in crunch time on Monday is very, very ominous for Arkansas, who isn’t firing on all cylinders offensively and is finding it hard to keep up on the road, no matter the level of the opposition.

There’s a good team somewhere in there, especially if Smith returns at some point instead of putting the future ahead of the present. But I don’t see them winning in Waco, and I don’t think it will be a particularly close scoreline either.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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