We keep getting spoiled with great early season matchups, and this weekend is no different. The slate is loaded, the energy is high, and this one jumps off the page the moment you look at it. This Saturday morning game between No. 4 Duke and No. 7 Michigan State is the clear game of the day from the college basketball circuit. With the college football conference championships going off, not many people may care about this matchup, but it has my full attention this Friday afternoon. Let's dive into it!
Regression is Due
I keep going back to November 8, when Michigan State hosted Arkansas and the Spartans won 69 to 66 on their home court. The Razorbacks played a great game and probably should have won it, but they fell short. The Spartans have taken care of a few other top 50 teams, but I think they are due for a letdown. This Duke team should be able to handle it on the road on Saturday.
Despite the Spartans going through one of the toughest early stretches in the season, having to take on four top 30 teams and only hosting two of them, they feel due for some regression. Tuesday they destroyed Iowa 71 to 52. Would Michigan State be a point and a half favorite if they barely won or even lost? Plus, I think Duke's schedule is being a little disrespected. They have also taken on four top 50 teams to start the year. They hosted only one, the rest were neutral site games. Haslametrics still gives Michigan State the strength of schedule advantage by almost 130 spots. I disagree.
Trust Jon Scheyer
The Blue Devils have been very impressive this season, holding a top ten offense along with a top five defense. They own the number one eFG% defense in the country. They excel at defending the inside and outside, and they keep their hands to themselves, ranked 11th in free throw rate defense. On the other end, they are one of the most efficient teams at scoring on the inside, ranked third in two-point offense. They protect the ball well and get off clean shots, ranked 17th in offensive block percentage and 59th in turnover offense. Jon Scheyer has a well rounded machine yet again.
Michigan State's defense is always going to be strong under Tom Izzo, but their offense sits outside the top 100 in most categories. They are an unbelievable offensive rebounding team, top ten in that category. However, they are 167th in turnover percentage, 186th in free throw rate, and 180th in three-point percentage, while being 306th three-point rate. With points likely at a premium in this matchup due to the pace of play, I think Duke can handle the Spartans offense even in a hostile environment like the one in East Lansing. Give me the Dukies.
