Game of the night, and one that should set the tone for what should be an unbelievable weekend. No. 3 UConn heads to Madison Square Garden to take on No. 22 St. John's Red Storm. Both teams are riding massive winning streaks and looking to keep their winning ways alive, but one streak will come to an end this evening. Whose will it be?
I debated this all night, diving into the advanced metrics and recent form for both teams, and I have to side with the Huskies in this spot. Both fan bases should show up in force, and it is not a tough journey for the UConn faithful to get to Madison Square Garden. More importantly, I love how well the Huskies have performed on the road and against top 50 teams all season.
Road Dogs Bark
Haslametrics grades UConn as the 129th best team in the country in away home court metrics, while the Red Storm sit at 347th. He states, "St. John's may fail to meet expectations here, as their efforts at home have been, on average, far inferior to their performances away from home."
The Huskies have played five games against top 50 opponents away from home. During that stretch, they own the fourth best defense in the country and the 24th best offense. Overall, on the road this season, they have excelled at blocking shots, forcing turnovers, limiting three-point attempts, and guarding the interior. UConn does foul at a high rate, but Hurley embraces that approach, as he wants his team to stay aggressive. Offensively, they rank 20th in eFG%, 27th in offensive rebounding, 29th in three-point percentage, and 53rd in two-point percentage.
UConn is facing a defense they have not seen since November 24, when they lost to Iowa State 83 to 82. On the season, the Johnnies are 2-4 against top 50 teams.
The Red Storm do boast an excellent defense, ranked 18th in the nation at home. However, the offense has some clear flaws. They rank 263rd in three-point percentage and 283rd in three-point rate. That profile does not lend itself well to playing from behind. Their identity is attacking the rim, but even there they have been less efficient at home, ranking 157th in two-point percentage. On top of that, through 12 games at home, St. John's ranks 218th in offensive turnover percentage.
UConn coasted through much of January and has since turned things up. Over their last two games, the Huskies have won by a combined 59 points. I do not see regression here, I see a team gearing up for March. St. John's did not look great offensively on Tuesday and still managed to cover thanks to another second half collapse from DePaul, who trailed by just one at halftime. This feels like a spot where Hurley and his group elevate their play.
Take the more complete team. Go Huskies.
