Game of the week tips off in East Lansing as No. 7 Michigan State hosts No. 3 Michigan in a matchup that should set the tone for the entire weekend. Both teams are coming off wins in their previous games. The Wolverines have not lost since January 10 against Wisconsin, while the Spartans have not lost since January 2 against Nebraska. There are plenty of questions surrounding this matchup. Who was looking ahead earlier in the week, who is due for a loss, and who is more motivated in this spot. I have plenty of thoughts, so let us dive in.
Death. Taxes. Heated rivalry under. These two rivals were clearly looking ahead to this matchup earlier in the week, as both barely escaped with wins on Tuesday. Michigan State trailed the Scarlet Knights 37 to 28 at halftime before pulling away for an 88 to 79 win. On the other side, Michigan barely survived against the then 20-0 Cornhuskers as an 11.5-point favorite, sneaking past Nebraska 75 to 72. If Michigan had lost that game on Tuesday, I would be all over them in this spot. I lean with the Spartans, but I love the under.
Turtle Like Pace
Michigan State prefers to play slow, ranking 283rd in pace this season, while Michigan likes to speed things up. I expect the home team to dictate tempo in this one. Through 11 games against top 100 opponents, the Spartans rank 320th in pace. They have made points and possessions an all time premium in these big games. Michigan State has consistently slowed down fast teams. They held Arkansas to 66 points, Kentucky to 66 points, North Carolina to 58 points, Nebraska to 56 points, and Duke to 66 points. They do an excellent job forcing opponents to play their game.
No surprise here, but through those same 11 games, the Spartans own the number one defense in the country. During that stretch, they rank top 25 in eFG%, rebounding, block percentage, and both two-point and three-point shooting defense. A complete defensive juggernaut.
Michigan, on the other hand, has played the toughest schedule in college basketball and owns the second best defense against top 100 opponents. They have been strong across nearly every defensive metric, with the exception of turnover percentage, where they rank 118th. Everywhere else, they sit inside the top 65.
As mentioned earlier, Michigan prefers to push the pace. However, through five true road games, they drop from the ninth fastest team in the country to 97th. It is still a small sample size, but that is a significant drop and gives me confidence that the Spartans can force this game to be played at a grandpa pickup league pace.
I expect both teams to be fully motivated and play hard nosed defense from start to finish. Under.
