#22 St. John’s vs. Kentucky: Odds & Predictions | December 20, 2025

One of my favorite matchups on the Saturday slate features Rick Pitino and No. 22 St. John's heading to Atlanta to take on Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats. So far this season, the Wildcats have dealt with injuries and have not played up to expectations. However, coming off a big win over Indiana on Saturday and with key pieces getting healthier, this group should only improve as the weeks go by.

As for the Red Storm, they have faced one of the toughest schedules to start the year. Haslametrics rates their schedule as the 25th toughest in the country, with games against Alabama, Iowa State, Baylor, Auburn, and Ole Miss. In those five games against top 100 opponents, they are 2-3. The question becomes whether Rick Pitino can have his group ready to take on his former program, or if Mark Pope can finally have his team ready to knock off a top 25 opponent.

Circle Spot

I have had both the over and St. John's circled for this spot all week. This bet depended on whether the Red Storm covered against DePaul, and they did not. Because of that, I grabbed St. John's to win at $1.55. Yes, it is a bit juicy, but I would rather pay the juice for them to win than sweat the -2.5. If you prefer the over, that is a fine lean as well, with both teams ranking inside the top 150 in pace.

There is also word that Wildcats forward Jayden Quaintance is expected to make his season debut this weekend. If that is the case, I actually like St. John's even more. Quaintance is a highly regarded transfer who should add depth to this $22 million dollar roster, but he has not played in a meaningful game since February 23, 2025. Will the chemistry be there right away? Anything is possible, but I lean toward no.

Prior to the win over Indiana, the Wildcats had been a major disappointment. They have faced five top 100 teams this season, and in four losses they were beaten by an average of 15.7 points. Haslametrics has Kentucky in the bottom ten nationally in momentum, consistency, and away from home performance.

Keys to Success

The Wildcats have struggled mightily with efficiency from beyond the arc this season, ranking 228th in three point percentage. Against top 100 opponents, that number drops to 316th. Meanwhile, the Red Storm rank inside the top 70 at defending the perimeter and still maintain a top 100 three point defense against top 100 teams. Against that same level of competition, St. John's has posted a top 50 offense and defense, excelling at second chance points, getting to the free throw line, and protecting the interior. Their one weakness has been defensive rebounding, but Kentucky has also struggled on the offensive glass. If the Red Storm can step up and win the rebounding battle, they should be in great shape Saturday afternoon.