#22 Missouri vs Texas: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | January 21, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Tue Jan 21, 2025, 1:53 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The Texas Longhorns return home after a tough loss to Florida, looking to bounce back against the newly ranked No. 22 Missouri Tigers. Missouri comes into this matchup on a hot streak, winning four of its last five games with victories over several strong SEC opponents. Meanwhile, Texas has struggled recently, dropping four of its last five, but the Longhorns are a different team at home. This showdown pits a desperate Texas squad against a Missouri team trying to maintain its momentum in a tough road environment.
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#22 Missouri vs Texas Odds
Can Texas bounce back after their brutal loss to No. 5 Florida?
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.
Spread
Missouri: +1.5 (-105)
Texas: -1.5 (-115)
Total
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Missouri: +107
Texas: -127
#22 Missouri vs Texas Bet
Coming off a humbling loss to Florida on Saturday, the Texas Longhorns host the newly ranked No. 22 Missouri Tigers. Missouri has been on a roll, winning four of its last five games with impressive victories over LSU, Vanderbilt, No. 5 Florida, and Arkansas. Meanwhile, Texas has dropped four of its last five, with its lone win coming against a struggling Sooners squad. Can the Longhorns grind out a win as short favorites against the red-hot Tigers? Short answer: yes. Let's break it down.
Texas at Home
Texas is one of the best home teams in the country. Haslametrics ranks them as the 13th-best home team, while Missouri is 36th worst on the road. At home, the Longhorns boast one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, ranking 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They excel at protecting the ball, ranking second in turnover rate, and although they do not rely heavily on three-pointers, they knock them down at an impressive 42.5% clip when they take them. Additionally, Texas is in the top 35 in two-point shooting and ranks inside the top 135 in both free throw rate and free throw percentage.
Defensively, Texas is solid across the board. They rank inside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage defense, block percentage, and two-point defense. Their one notable weakness is free throw rate defense, where they sit at 201st nationally, but otherwise, their defense is well-rounded and effective.
Road Woes
Missouri, on the other hand, has struggled mightily on the road. In away games this season, they rank in the 300s in several key defensive metrics: 322nd in effective field goal percentage defense, 309th in defensive rebounding, 355th in free throw rate defense, 323rd in three-point defense, and 304th in defensive block percentage. Their offensive block percentage is not much better, ranking 318th. While this is based on just a four-game sample against top 50 teams, tonight they face another top-50 team on the road—a scenario where they have consistently underperformed.
All in all, this is an excellent spot to back Texas. The Longhorns are coming off a tough loss, while Missouri is riding high after a stretch of big wins against tough SEC opponents. This also fits the classic "unranked home favorite vs. ranked opponent" trend that bettors know and love. While I am not the biggest Texas fan, they are as battle-tested as Missouri, have the advantage of playing in their own gym where they thrive, and, most importantly, should be desperate for a win.
Bet: Texas Moneyline (-127) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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