#2 Michigan State vs #1 Auburn: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | March 30, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Sat Mar 29, 2025, 9:45 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Michigan State and Auburn face off in an Elite Eight battle of contrasting styles. The Spartans thrive on defense and a slow pace, while Auburn wants to speed things up and lean on its offense. If Auburn can dictate tempo early, they have a strong chance to cover the first half.
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Last Month in CBB: 34-38-1 (-0.91 Units)
#2 Michigan State vs #1 Auburn Odds
Can Auburn hold down Michigan State in the Elite Eight?
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Spread
Michigan State: +5 (-105)
Auburn: -5 (-115)
Total
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Michigan State: +205
Auburn: -245
#2 Michigan State vs #1 Auburn Best Bet
The motto all tournament has been simple—get in, get out. That is exactly the approach for this matchup. Michigan State has a reputation for slow starts, only to come alive in the second half. On Friday night against Ole Miss, they trailed 33-31 at halftime before outscoring the Rebels 42-37 after the break. Michigan State always finds a way to finish strong, but I want no part of the second half. I want Auburn to get the job done early, so we do not have to sweat the rest of the game. Do I lean Auburn fully in this matchup? Yes. Is it because I have a future on them to win it all? Possibly.
I am just not sold on Michigan State's offense. Their defense is arguably the best in the country, but their offense is streaky. Since February 1st, they rank 212th in effective field goal percentage, 232nd in two-point shooting, and 310th in three-point rate, despite a respectable 33.9% three-point percentage. On the other side, Auburn's offense is top 10 in the country—70th in effective field goal percentage, 57th in two-point shooting, and 121st in three-point percentage, while also ranking top 150 in three-point rate. Not to mention, the Tigers are one of the best teams at protecting the basketball, ranking 31st in turnover offense.
Auburn will look to push the pace, while Michigan State will try to slow this game to a crawl. Since February 1st, Auburn has ranked inside the top 110 in tempo, while Michigan State has been in the 240s. If Auburn wants to win, they need to force Michigan State out of their comfort zone and make them run. If they can control the pace and speed up the Spartans, they should at least secure a first-half cover.
Best Bet: Auburn 1st Half (-2.5) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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