#2 Alabama vs #1 Duke: Odds, Predictions & Key insights | March 29, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Fri Mar 28, 2025, 2:06 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Alabama faces a massive challenge in the Elite Eight, going from one of the worst perimeter defenses to one of the best. Duke will slow the pace and shut down Alabama's three-point game, forcing the Crimson Tide to adjust. If Alabama struggles early, this game could quickly swing in Duke's favor, making the under a strong play.
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#2 Alabama vs #1 Duke Odds
Does Alabama have what it takes to upset Duke?
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Spread
Alabama: +7 (-113)
Duke: -7 (-107)
Total
Over: 173.5 (-110)
Under: 173.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Alabama: +245
Duke: -290
#2 Alabama vs #1 Duke Best Bet
Going from the 79th-best defense since February 1st to the 12th-best in back-to-back games will undoubtedly be a challenge for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Not to mention, moving from the 283rd-best perimeter defense to the 45th will be tough for a team that just shot 51 threes in the Sweet Sixteen, knocking down 49% of them against BYU. Duke is going to shut all of that down in the Elite Eight. Duke is also not going to allow this matchup to turn into a track meet. They prefer a slower pace, despite running against Arizona on Thursday. That is not their style, ranked 257th in pace during that stretch.
I expect the Crimson Tide to come out sluggish after their near-perfect game against the Cougars, who allowed them to do whatever they wanted in their 113-88 blowout win on Thursday. The Blue Devils will not allow Alabama to take a ton of shots from beyond the arc. In Duke's last ten games, they are 67th in three-point percentage defense and 172nd in three-point rate defense. To put that in perspective, BYU, in their last ten games, ranked 316th in three-point percentage defense and 6th highest in three-point rate defense.
Alabama will need to play another perfect game to get past the Blue Devils in the Elite Eight if they want to reach the Final Four. I do not see it happening, but sports are unpredictable. The way I see this prop, if the Crimson Tide have a hot first half, we can hedge the second-half team total under. One of these halves, Alabama will struggle. I am banking on it being right out of the gate against the probable clear-cut team to cut down the nets in the national championship. Duke should take care of this offense. Under.
Best Bet: Alabama 1st Half Team Total Under 39.5 (-115) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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