No. 18 Florida steps into another major test on Tuesday evening, as they face a No. 8 UConn team that has looked sharp from the opening tip. The Gators enter this matchup with battle scars after a demanding start to the season, but they have shown real toughness in every big spot. UConn brings a complete roster and plenty of momentum, yet the metrics suggest this matchup may be tighter than many expect. Both teams have already faced high level competition and know exactly what is at stake. This sets the stage for a physical game that should deliver, so grab your popcorn.
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#18 Florida vs. #5 UConn Odds
Can Florida bounce back after a tough loss to Duke?
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Spread
Florida: +5 (-110)
UConn: -5 (-110)
Total
Over: 145.5 (-110)
Under: 145.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Florida: +192
UConn: -230
#18 Florida vs. #5 UConn Best Bet
Welcome to the game of the week as No. 18 Florida and No. 5 UConn head to New York to go head-to-head at Madison Square Garden. The Gators are coming off a tough loss to Duke in their previous matchup. On the other end, UConn is coming off taking down Kansas and East Texas A&M. Both teams are looking to make a splash in the most famous arena in the world. Who is going to come out on top in this cinematic matchup?
Line Movement & Leans
The line in this matchup opened with UConn as a 4.5 point favorite and has climbed to five on some books. I grabbed the +5 on Florida, believing the ceiling on this spread will be around this number. I like the Gators a lot here. They have not looked as dominant as they were last year, but they feel very due for a strong performance.
The Gators are still feeling the sting from their one point loss to Duke last Tuesday. Florida probably should have come out on top in that matchup. They controlled the rebounding battle 38 to 30, did not lose the turnover battle, but had 11 shots blocked. That is always a confidence killer.
Tested Early and Often
Even with that tough loss, I believe this is a great spot for Florida to get right. They have dealt with one of the toughest schedules in the country to start the year and are sitting at 2-3 against top 100 teams. Those losses were a six point loss to Arizona on a neutral court, a four point loss to TCU, and their most recent one point loss to Duke. Their wins include a 14 point win over Miami and a 12 point win over Providence. With those top 100 matchups either being convincing wins or tight losses, they should be able to keep this within five.
On the other side, UConn has been tested early, but Haslametrics still has Florida 90 spots ahead of the Huskies. Aside from their recent win over East Texas A&M, the Huskies took down Illinois and Kansas in the two prior matchups. UConn has been rolling all season and looks as complete as they did two years ago. Their lone blemish is a 71 to 67 home loss to the same Arizona group that took down Florida on a neutral site.
All in all, I believe Florida is due for a bounce back and UConn is due for some regression after their recent wins. If Florida can push the pace and force UConn to run, that should benefit a Gators team that thrives in transition. Despite some early flaws, the Gators have stepped up in big games. Bart Torvik still has them as a top 50 offense and a top 25 defense, excelling on the glass and at getting to the line. I do not see a better way to attack this game, I love the Gators in this spot.
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