Welcome in to the Champions Classic, where No. 17 Michigan State takes on No. 12 Kentucky in New York City at the most famous arena in the world. The Garden is going to be a mad house and these two teams are out for blood. The Wildcats still have blood in their mouth from their road loss at Louisville. Meanwhile, the Spartans are still riding the high of their win over Arkansas at home ten days ago. Who will be victorious this evening?
I lean heavily toward the Wildcats in this one. First, I am aware of the injury to Jaland Lowe, who will be out this evening due to a shoulder issue. The junior guard has averaged 23.5 minutes this season while putting up 7.5 PPG and 5.0 APG.
Secondly, Kentucky needs to respond after falling short against the Cardinals. They have already been tested and came up empty. This is their chance to regroup and return to the win column against a team inside the top 25.
Play Your Game
Kentucky comes out on top and covers this game by playing their style of basketball. They need to force Michigan State out of their comfort zone and run. Kentucky is currently 22nd in tempo, while Michigan State sits at 242nd, per Haslametrics. If the Spartans are sped up, I do not believe they will be able to keep pace with the Wildcats. Michigan State has already been notoriously poor from deep this season, currently ranked 13th worst in three-point offense. The Wildcats have been excellent at holding down the perimeter, sitting at 52nd in the country in three-point defense.
I find it funny that Haslametrics is giving Michigan State the edge in strength of schedule up to this point, even though they have played all three of their games in East Lansing. Meanwhile, Kentucky has at least stepped outside their home gym. If anything, I would give Kentucky the advantage there. The Spartans have enjoyed the comfort of their own floor through three games.
To add on to that, even with every game at home so far, the Spartans are still 273rd in free throw percentage. Small sample size, but Kentucky went 12 for 16 from the line at Louisville and has been shooting over 72% at the stripe this season.
If Kentucky is able to force Michigan State to run, they should be able to build and extend a lead throughout the evening. The Wildcats thrive when they push the pace, and they remain the number one inside scoring team in college basketball. Michigan State has struggled to keep up with quicker teams, and if the Wildcats dictate tempo early, the Spartans will be fighting uphill the entire way. I believe Kentucky still comes out on top with this matchup. Even without Lowe and Jayden Quaintance, who has yet to play this season.
SKO CATS!!
