Game of the night, as No. 10 Michigan State heads to Madison to take on Wisconsin. Both teams are coming off overtime wins against Illinois in their previous outings. Will Michigan State benefit from nearly a week off, or will Wisconsin have enough energy to defend its home floor at the Kohl Center? This matchup feels like the perfect stage setter for the rest of the weekend. Let us get into it.
I absolutely love the under in this spot, with Wisconsin playing its third game in under a week. Both of the Badgers' last two games went to overtime, so their legs should be feeling it. Meanwhile, Michigan State has had a full week to recover since its own overtime win against Illinois. The Spartans will not allow this game to get out of hand and should be able to dictate tempo. Through six road games this season, they rank as the 57th slowest team in the country. Wisconsin does push the pace more at home, ranking 59th in tempo, but after essentially playing two and a half games across its last two contests, fatigue is a real factor.
Looking back at the Michigan State versus Michigan game, I grabbed the under there as well. It ultimately went over because the Spartans were forced to foul in the final 90 seconds while trailing by nearly double digits. The game finished 83 to 71. Michigan loves to run and sits as the number one team on Bart Torvik. I expect Michigan State to force a less talented Wisconsin squad into a more controlled, half court battle tonight.
On the road, Michigan State has maintained a top 15 defense. It is one of the nation's best rebounding teams. The Spartans rank top 20 in eFG% defense, two-point percentage defense, and defensive block percentage.
Through 14 home games, Wisconsin owns a top 70 defense that does an excellent job limiting second chance opportunities and defending the perimeter. The Badgers have struggled against top 50 opponents, but I am not concerned about Michigan State lighting up the scoreboard. The most the Spartans have scored on the road is 88 points at Rutgers, and that game went to overtime. They had 73 at the end of regulation.
If Michigan State walks into the Kohl Center and imposes its slow, methodical style, this game stays under 146.5.
