NBA Playoff Bubble Watch: Odds, Value and Teams to Target

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Published: Mon Mar 23, 2026, 11:00 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Break down NBA playoff odds with best bets, fades and value plays as bubble teams battle for positioning down the stretch.

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The NBA regular season is entering its final stretch, and the pressure is starting to ramp up for teams fighting to stay in the playoff picture.

With teams having about 10-12 games remaining, there's little room for error for those sitting on the bubble. Let's take a look at which teams are in the mix, and how the odds are shaping up.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.

NBA Playoff Odds for Bubble Teams

Before diving into the teams that stand out, here's a look at the current odds for several teams fighting to stay in the playoff picture.

Remember, due to the Play-In Tournament format, teams outside the top six must win one or two games, depending on seeding, to officially claim one of the final postseason berths, the 7th or 8th seed, in order to cash a "yes" bet.

To Make Playoffs Odds (via BetOnline)

  • Toronto Raptors: Yes (-650) | No (+425)
  • Phoenix Suns: Yes (-450) | No (+325)
  • Orlando Magic: Yes (-300) | No (+240)
  • Atlanta Hawks: Yes (-220) | No (+180)
  • Miami Heat: Yes (-220) | No (+180)
  • Los Angeles Clippers: Yes (-180) | No (+150)
  • Philadelphia 76ers: Yes (-160) | No (+130)
  • Charlotte Hornets: Yes (-150) | No (+120)
  • Golden State Warriors: Yes (+200) | No (-260)
  • Portland Trail Blazers: Yes (+220) | No (-280)

Teams Worth Backing

In terms of value on the "Yes," there isn't much to work with given the amount of juice attached to most of these teams. The only ones even worth considering are the Clippers (-180), 76ers (-160), Hornets (-150), Warriors (+200) and Trail Blazers (+220).

When I broke down playoff odds about a month ago, I discussed the value of taking the Clippers at +160. I still believe they get in, but at this price, it's just not worth the cost of admission. I'd much rather look to back them in a play-in setting than sit on a -180 ticket for the next few weeks.

Portland is really the only team on this board that offers any legitimate betting value. That's not to say a team like Charlotte can't get there, but the path in the East is a bit tougher, and the price simply doesn't justify it.

The Blazers have hovered around this range in the standings for most of the season. Offensively, they rank 23rd in points per possession, while sitting 16th on the defensive end.

Since the beginning of March, the offense hasn't shown much improvement, but defensively they've taken a step forward, climbing into the top 10 over that stretch.

I'm not saying that I'm in love with this wager, but it's one of the few spots on the board that offers any real value. Portland has enough on its roster to compete with the teams it will likely face in the play-in, and at this price, that's enough to consider.

Teams to Fade

In that same article from a month ago, the Orlando Magic were a team I targeted to miss the playoffs. At the time, their price was +275 on the "No," and now it sits at +240. I still think this team is vulnerable, particularly on the defensive end, so I wouldn't argue with anyone looking to jump in on that number.

Aside from Orlando, the next clear choice is the Philadelphia 76ers. They rank 17th in both offensive and defensive rating on the season, and since the start of March, those numbers have dipped to 24th and 22nd, respectively.

On top of that, the Sixers continue to deal with injuries. Tyrese Maxey is set to be re-evaluated toward the end of March, while Joel Embiid has struggled to stay on the floor. At this point, it's hard to know what version of this team you're getting on a nightly basis.

They simply haven't had enough time together, and that's not something you want to be banking on in a do-or-die setting.

So outside of my original position on Orlando to miss the postseason, Philadelphia stands out as the next best fade on the board.

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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