NBA Playoff Watch: Which Fringe Teams Get In?
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Wed Feb 18, 2026, 8:33 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The NBA regular season tips back off Thursday evening, but before we dive back into the nightly grind, it's worth zooming out and taking a look at the bigger picture. Several teams are hovering in the Play-In range, meaning they'll need to either secure a top-six seed or survive the Play-In Tournament to officially make the postseason, and their yes or no prices could offer some intriguing value at this point.
Below, we'll break down a handful of fringe teams and determine whether their current odds are worth backing, or fading.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
NBA Playoff Yes or No Odds
At BetOnline, several teams hovering around that fringe playoff territory are currently being offered two-way markets on their odds to reach the postseason.
Remember, due to the Play-In Tournament format, teams outside the top six must win one or two games, depending on seeding, to officially claim one of the final postseason berths, the 7th or 8th seed, in order to cash a "yes" bet.
Here are the teams and their Yes and No odds that are currently offered:
| Team | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | +200 | -260 |
| Charlotte Hornets | -155 | +125 |
| Golden State Warriors | -175 | +145 |
| LA Clippers | +160 | -200 |
| Miami Heat | -225 | +185 |
| Orlando Magic | -400 | +275 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | -650 | +425 |
| Phoenix Suns | -800 | +500 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | +210 | -270 |
| Toronto Raptors | -900 | +550 |
Which Teams Are Worth Betting?
Los Angeles Clippers – Yes (+160)
It's not unreasonable to envision the Clippers continuing this surge and climbing as high as the eighth seed, which would require winning just one Play-In game to secure a playoff berth.
Even if they remain in one of the bottom two Play-In spots, I still like their chances.
Offensively, they rank eighth in effective field goal percentage and 12th in points per possession. Defensively, they sit 15th and 20th in those same categories. Since December 20, however, those numbers have jumped significantly. The Clippers rank fifth in offensive eFG% and fourth in points per possession, while defensively improving to sixth and 12th in those respective metrics.
They did move on from James Harden, acquiring a younger guard in Darius Garland, who could eventually complement Kawhi Leonard well. Speaking of Leonard, he's having an outstanding season so far, averaging 28 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game.
He's been shouldering the brunt of the workload that's fueled their resurgence, and he'll need to continue doing so a bit longer as the team awaits Garland's return to the hardwood.
Garland is currently considered week-to-week following surgery on his left toe and is not expected back until sometime in March.
Nevertheless, the Clippers have become a feisty bunch and may be playing with added motivation after the front office reshaped the roster.
Orlando Magic – No (+275)
While much of the focus is on teams trying to climb in, the better wager in the East may actually be backing the Orlando Magic to miss the postseason at +275.
After a first-round exit last season, many expected Orlando to take a step forward. Instead, they've regressed.
The Magic rank 26th in offensive effective field goal percentage and 23rd in points per possession. Defensively, which was the foundation of their identity a year ago, they've slipped as well, ranking 23rd in defensive eFG% and 14th in points per possession allowed.
The likely competition they could face in a Play-In scenario includes the Miami Heat, who always seem to find a way to sneak in, the Charlotte Hornets, whose offense can exploit Orlando's defensive slippage, and the Atlanta Hawks, who would probably represent the Magic's most favorable matchup.
Of course, a lot can and likely will change between now and the end of the season. If it ended today, Orlando, currently the 7th seed, would need just one win to secure a playoff spot, and would be matched up against the 10th-seeded Hawks. That's a manageable path.
However, if the Magic slide into the 9th or 10th seed, they would need to win two elimination games instead of one, which becomes far less comfortable given their current form.
Either way, this is not a team trending in the right direction. At +275 to miss the playoffs, there's value in fading Orlando while that price is still available.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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