NBA Player Props Today: Top Bets for Friday, March 6

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Last Update: Fri Mar 06, 2026, 12:21 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

BetOnline Sets 2025 NBA Rookie Props: Flagg Leads Field

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Happy Friday, ladies and gentlemen! Following an exciting night of hoops on Thursday, we've got seven more games to look forward to on Friday night.

Star players are returning, several teams are on the second leg of back-to-backs and there are a few props that have a strong edge. Let's dive into my NBA player prop bets for Friday, March 6.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.

NBA Player Props Today: Top Bets for Friday, March 6

Want to get involved in today's nine-game NBA slate? Then check out our expert's NBA prop bets for Saturday, December, 27.

Cooper Flagg Under 17.5 Points (-110)

To kick off Friday night's NBA slate, the Mavericks head east as hefty +15.5-point underdogs to take on the Boston Celtics.

This game likely wouldn't draw much attention if it weren't for the expected return of Celtics star Jayson Tatum.

Even without Tatum back in the lineup, Dallas would already be in a tough spot, and that includes their No. 1 overall pick, Cooper Flagg, who I'll be fading tonight.

Flagg is being asked to score 18 points against a Celtics defense that ranks fourth in effective field goal percentage and seventh in points per possession allowed. That's already a tall task.

It becomes even more difficult when you factor in that Flagg returned to action yesterday for the first time since February 10, putting him immediately on the second leg of a back-to-back.

In a normal spot, I wouldn't be looking to play the under on such a low number like 17.5. But given the matchup, the circumstances and the scheduling spot, this sets up as a tough night for the Mavericks' rookie.

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Saddiq Bey Over 5.5 Rebounds (+115)

The Phoenix Suns were once a respectable rebounding team, but consistent injuries to key players have taken a toll on that production. They still rank 14th in rebound percentage on the season, but if we narrow the sample to the past 15 games, they've dropped all the way to 25th.

Phoenix is also still without Dillon Brooks, Jordan Goodwin and big man Mark Williams.

On top of that, the Suns are on the second leg of a back-to-back, which could lead to some weary legs, more missed shots and ultimately more rebounding opportunities.

I'm hoping a lot of those chances fall into the hands of New Orleans Pelicans guard Saddiq Bey.

The former Villanova Wildcat is averaging 5.7 rebounds per game, but he has shown flashes of grabbing double-digit boards in a game. Now, I'm not necessarily expecting him to reach that mark tonight, but if there were a spot for him to exceed his season averages, this would certainly be it. And at a plus-money price to do so, count me in. 

Luka Doncic Under 9.5 Assists (+102)

Luka

I originally had this as a wager in my Lakers vs Nuggets game preview yesterday, but I scratched it at the last second because most books had already shifted his prop from 8.5 (-130), which is where I grabbed it, down to 7.5.

Fast forward to today and that same prop has now jumped all the way up to 9.5.

The reasoning likely comes down to the opponent — the Indiana Pacers, who are one of the league's weaker teams. They rank in the bottom half defensively and have very little to play for at this point in the season.

So the assumption would be that his facilitating increases against a weaker opponent. But I'm looking at it from a different angle.

There's a strong chance he simply has an easier time scoring and pads those numbers instead, or he may not even log enough minutes to reach double-digit assists. The Lakers are on the second leg of a back-to-back and if they take control of this game early against Indiana, they may not feel the need to push their star player for heavy minutes.

When you combine that with the abrupt and somewhat unwarranted line movement, it's enough for me to fade Luka today.

Best Bets:

NBA Record: 138-109-1 (+17.35 units)

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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