Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Thu Mar 05, 2026, 1:19 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nba
Thursday night's nine-game NBA slate features several strong matchups, but one that stands out is the showdown in the Mile High City between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
Location: Ball Arena – Denver, Colorado
Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
Tipoff: 10:00 PM ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | +5.0 (-113) | +160 | Over 241.0 (-110) |
| Denver Nuggets | -5.0 (-107) | -197 | Under 241.0 (-110) |
Can the Los Angeles Lakers extend their three-game winning streak tonight? Based on what we've seen when they've been cast as underdogs, it may be tough sledding.
Los Angeles is 0-11 both straight up and against the spread in its last 11 games as an underdog.
The Los Angeles Lakers are 0-11 SU/ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog:
+3.5 at PHX❌
+2 vs. HOU❌
+2.5 vs. DET❌
+9 at SA❌
+3.5 at POR❌
+2.5 at LAC❌
+3.5 at CLE❌
+6 at NYK❌
+6.5 vs. OKC❌
+14 vs. SA❌
+1 vs. BOS ❌Lakers are +5.5 at Nuggets tonight
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) March 5, 2026
As crazy as that losing streak is, it doesn't guarantee anything for this matchup. Each game is different, and we have to evaluate the context for each one separately.
The Denver Nuggets are coming off a 128-115 win at Utah on Monday after losing the night before to Minnesota, 117-108. Denver has had two days of rest following that back-to-back stretch and now returns home to face this volatile Los Angeles Lakers group.
On the injury front, the Nuggets will still be without Aaron Gordon, Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones, while Cam Johnson is listed as questionable.
For the Lakers, the only player appearing on the injury report is big man Maxi Kleber, who is also listed as questionable.
This will be the second of three meetings between these Western Conference foes. Los Angeles took the first matchup 115-107 in Denver on January 20.
Luka Doncic led the way with 38 points in that game, while LeBron James added 19. On the other side, with Nikola Jokic unavailable, Jamal Murray paced Denver with 28 points and Aaron Gordon chipped in 18.
It goes without saying how impactful having Nikola Jokić on or off the floor is, but to put it in context, his efficiency differential sits at +17.8. That not only leads the Nuggets, but ranks in the 99th percentile among players at his position across the NBA.
However, with Aaron Gordon still sidelined, Denver is also missing a key contributor. Gordon owns a +13.2 efficiency differential, second on the team and in the 98th percentile among his position group.
Since Gordon's last appearance on January 23, the Nuggets are just 7-9.
Looking at how these teams match up overall, there's a sizable gap between each offense and the opposing defense.
Denver ranks first in both offensive points per possession and effective field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Lakers sit 21st and 27th in those categories defensively.
On the other side, Los Angeles ranks 10th in points per possession and second in effective field goal percentage offensively, while Denver's defense checks in at 22nd and 16th in those same metrics.
One of the biggest vulnerabilities for the Lakers comes at the rim. Los Angeles ranks 28th in opponent field goal percentage allowed at the basket and 16th in shot rate conceded there. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are a top-10 team in field goal percentage at the rim and could easily exploit that glaring weakness in LA's frontcourt.
I like the Denver side in this game, however I'm a bit hesitant to pull the trigger pre-flop. I expect Nikola Jokić to punish the Lakers' weak interior defense and consistently generate quality shots or trips to the free-throw line throughout the night. Factor that in alongside the Lakers' disadvantages in terms of rest and playing on the road, and it certainly feels like Denver is the right side.
However, considering how poor both defenses have been, I expect plenty of back-and-forth scoring. That could open the door for a better in-game number on the home side. I'll patiently wait for a more favorable live betting opportunity on the Nuggets.
As for props, I'll be sweating out one under tonight.
I'm taking Austin Reaves to stay under 28.5 points, rebounds and assists (-121).
Reaves has failed to eclipse this mark in each of his last six games, averaging 15.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and three assists during that stretch.
Simply put, the market appears a bit too bullish on Reaves tonight. I understand the bump given Denver's shaky defense, but when the Lakers are fully healthy, particularly with Doncic and James both active, Reaves' production tends to take a hit. That makes this a good spot to sell high on his PRA line.
NBA Record: 137-109-1 (+16.35 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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