Hawks vs Heat (NBA Play-In Tournament): Predictions & Best Bets for the #7 Seed Showdown

The Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat weren’t able to secure a direct spot in the NBA playoffs, but they have two cracks at landing one of the coveted first-round spots, starting with tonight’s head-to-head encounter (7:30 pm ET, TNT) for the seventh seed and a matchup with the Boston Celtics.

Trae Young and the Hawks (41-41) finished seventh in the Eastern Conference, three games behind Jimmy Butler and the Heat (44-38). As a result, Miami will host tonight’s matchup at the Kaseya Center, where they went 27-14 ATS in the regular season.

Who will lock up the seventh seed in the East? Read on for our Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat prediction, as well as our best bets for the matchup.

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Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Odds

Odds are via FanDuel as of Tuesday, April 11, 2023, at 2:00 pm ET.

Spread

• Atlanta Hawks +5 (-110)
• Miami Heat -5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 227.5 (-110)
• Under 227.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Atlanta Hawks +184
• Miami Heat -220

Will the Hawks Fail to Fly Away from Home Yet Again?

In the regular season, only seven NBA tea, ms finished with a winning record away from home. That includes both teams in action tonight in Miami, as both the Hawks finished at 17-24 SU on the road.

So, the Hawks certainly aren’t alone in not exactly thriving on the road. But will that prove to be what keeps them from reaching the playoffs for the third straight season?

In their final ten road games in the regular season, Atlanta posted three SU wins and four ATS wins, with losses accounting for their results in the other matchups.

In two trips to south Florida, the Hawks came out on the short end in both, falling 117-109 on March 4 and 130-128 two days later. They didn’t cover as a three-point underdog in the first matchup, but they covered as a 2.5-point underdog in the next meeting.

How is tonight’s matchup likely to pan out for Atlanta? In the regular season, they were 9-16 SU and 11-14-0 ATS when an underdog of five or fewer points.

By comparison, the Heat were 24-12 SU and 17-17-2 ATS when favored by five or fewer points in the regular season. So, the percentages certainly favor the home team locking up a matchup with the Celtics tonight, even if they don’t cover the spread in the process.

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat: Heat to win

Best Bet for Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat: Miami Heat team total over 116.5 (Best Value: FanDuel)

No team in the play-in or playoffs covered fewer times in the regular season than the Heat, who posted a 31-49-2 ATS mark. That was second only to the disappointing Dallas Mavericks (30-49-3 ATS) in the entire league.

So, backing them to cover the spread doesn’t exactly shape up as the best move to make here despite a solid 27-14 SU record at the Kaseya Center.

But I do like the home team to snag the #7 seed here, and with the Hawks being deficient defensively, the team total for the Heat has a lot of value in this spot.

Where to Bet on Hawks vs Heat

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s NBA postseason action.

This is a very popular time of year, and you can get in on the action at any of the top sports betting sites out there.

But these four books are all reputable names, and you can trust them with your betting funds.