USA vs Canada Basketball Prediction & Picks: Who Will Shake Off Disappointment to Take Third?

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

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USA vs Canada 2023 FIBA World Cup third place odds prediction picks cover


With how the first two rounds of the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup shook out, the draw for the knockout stages threw up the tantalizing prospect of the USA and Canada facing off on the final day of the tournament.

Well, we will indeed get to see that matchup take place.

However, instead of the gold medal game as many would have hoped, it will be for a battle for bronze (4:30 am ET, ESPN+).

After impressive wins in the quarters, both teams were favored entering Friday’s semifinals. But Bogdan Bogdanovic and Serbia downed Canada 95-86 in the first semi, and Germany continued their perfect run through the tournament by outlasting the Americans 113-111 to reach an Olympic or World Cup final for the first time.

Will the disappointment of not making the final affect each team’s performance, or are we still in for a thriller?

USA vs Canada Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of Saturday, September 9, 2023, at 3:10 pm ET.


  • USA -7 (-110)
  • Canada +7 (-110)


  • Over 191 (-110)
  • Under 191 (-110)


  • USA -275
  • Canada +220

Will Star Scorers Steal the Show in Bronze Battle?

When Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last shared the court together, a spot in the first round of last season’s NBA playoffs was on the line.

In that play-in tournament matchup in April, Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves routed SGA and the Oklahoma City Thunder 120-95 to set up a series with the Denver Nuggets.

Anthony Edwards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Timberwolves Thunder USA Canada basketball

In that game, neither Edwards (8 of 19 FG, 19 points) nor SGA (5 of 19 FG, 22 points) displayed the full extent of their point-producing prowess.

Though it’s not the medal that either side wanted, the USA and Canada are in contention to finish with a medal in part because the two young stars have delivered time and again.

Results for Canada at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

  • Friday, September 25: Canada 95-65 France
  • Sunday, September 27: Canada 128-73 Lebanon
  • Tuesday, September 29: Canada 101-75 Latvia
  • Friday, September 1: Brazil 69-65 Canada
  • Sunday, September 3: Canada 88-85 Spain
  • Wednesday, September 6: Canada 100-89 Slovenia
  • Friday, September 8: Serbia 95-86 Canada

Entering the third-place game, SGA ranks sixth among all players in the tournament in scoring at 23.6 PPG. He has scored 20+ points five times, with a high of 31 in Canada’s win over Luka Doncic and Slovenia in the quarters.

Edwards, meanwhile, ranks 17th at 18.1 PPG. He has three 20+ point games, with a high of 35 in his attempt to bring the USA back from 21 points down against Lithuania.

Results for the USA at the 2023 FIBA World Cup

  • Saturday, August 26: USA 99-72 New Zealand
  • Monday, August 28: USA 109-81 Greece
  • Wednesday, August 30: USA 110-62 Jordan
  • Friday, September 1: USA 85-73 Montenegro
  • Sunday, September 3: Lithuania 110-104 USA
  • Tuesday, September 5: USA 100-63 Italy
  • Friday, September 8: Germany 113-111 USA

We have a lot to look forward from both players in the upcoming NBA season, but first, will we see them show off in tomorrow’s bronze battle?

In the bronze game in Beijing four years ago, France defeated Australia 67-59. That was the lowest-scoring third-place tilt since American NBA players were allowed to participate in the tournament in 1994.

With that and the situation in mind, it’s fair to assume that there will be much more scoring in this matchup.

With the fifth and seventh-place games in the books, the USA (102.7 PPG) and Canada (94.7 PPG) rank first and third in scoring.

Also, they are both coming off of defensive performances that left a bit to be desired, to put it mildly. Serbia shot 62.1% (36 of 58) against Canada, while Germany made 57.7% (41 of 71) of their shots against the USA.

It’s entirely possible that such performances could inspire some stout defense and keep scoring down. But with gold off of the table and both teams already certain of a spot in the Paris Olympics next year, a high-scoring game is the likeliest outcome.

USA vs Canada Prediction and Picks

Prediction: USA to win

Picks: 1) USA/Canada over 191 (-110 at Bovada), 2) Mikal Bridges over 14.5 points (+105 at Bovada), 3) RJ Barrett over 18.5 points (-115 at Bovada)

While I certainly expect Edwards (O/U 19.5) and SGA (O/U 26.5) to have big games and highly encourage a sprinkle on both overs, I’m looking elsewhere for my favorite picks for this matchup.

After scoring a game-high 24 points against Italy, Bridges had 17 points against Germany. He made six of his seven shots, including all three of his attempts from outside.

In the World Cup, Bridges is shooting 66.7% (32 of 48) from the field, 57.1% (12 of 21) from three, and 87.5% from the free throw line. He has taken on a more important role as the tournament has worn out, and he will wrap it up with another solid showing.

On the other side, there’s a lot to like about Barrett’s over. With SGA limited to only eight shots against Serbia, Barrett led Canada with 23 points on 8 of 14 shooting.

It was his third 20+ point game of the tournament, and it followed a 24-point, nine-rebound performance against Slovenia. Look for him to continue that production and end the tournament on an individual high note.

Where to Bet on USA vs Canada

The USA vs Canada betting odds mentioned in this article came from Bovada, but they aren’t the only sports betting site out there offering 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup odds.

Here are some of the reputable online sportsbooks that we recommend for betting on the FIBA World Cup and other basketball competitions and leagues like the NBA and WNBA:

In addition to odds for each game of the tournament, you can find FIBA World Cup futures odds at these books. We have reviewed each of the above books and highly recommend them all.

If you don’t have an account at any of those sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.

2023 FIBA World Cup Gold Medal Game Betting

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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